Syz the moment

European High Yield markets encountered headwinds last week, particularly among the weakest issuers with CCC ratings, which experienced a notable decline of -0.7%. This downturn was fueled by renewed credit concerns, exemplified by significant drops (-30 points) in the senior unsecured debt of Altice France following debt restructuring announcements, and Ardagh Packaging exploring its debt structure. These incidents follow the recent Intrum crisis, where debt collector bonds plummeted by 20 points amid restructuring talks. These developments have erased the year-to-date gains of CCC-rated bonds in Europe, which stood at +6% before last week's events. This serves as a stark reminder of how quickly circumstances can change, especially in today's volatile interest rate environment! Stay informed and vigilant in navigating the ever-changing landscape of high yield markets. #HighYield #CreditConcerns #MarketVolatility 📉

It is also reflected in European junk bond spreads, which are at their lowest level since January 2021.
The backdrop is a far cry from last September and October, when a slew of junk issuers, pulled bond sales as the rapid increase in interest rates made it tougher for lower-rated companies to borrow. Source: Bloomberg

In February, US credit markets surged ahead of US Treasuries as spreads tightened significantly, reflecting the resilience of the US economy and robust corporate fundamentals, highlighted by strong Q4 2023 earnings. The spread of the Bloomberg US BB-rated corporate bonds index dipped below the 200 basis points mark, entering unprecedented territory. 💼 But with spreads at historic lows, the burning question emerges: Is this move sustainable, and for how long? As investors, should we prioritize absolute yield or relative yield in this environment? 🤔 With tightening credit spreads, it's imperative to carefully weigh the options. Remember, as spreads narrow, the risk of wider credit spreads increases, leaving less room for error. Source: Bloomberg #CreditMarkets #CorporateBonds #FinanceNews

Deutsche Bank's analysis of #highyield corporate bonds' maturity offers intriguing insights. In the last two years, the average maturity of high-yield bonds has significantly decreased, signaling companies' hesitancy to issue new debt amidst rising interest rates. This trend underscores the pressing challenges faced by high-yield borrowers on both sides of the Atlantic, with refinancing costs reaching levels seen only in severe crises over the past two decades. Not to mention that HY credit spreads are low, so what if they were to start widening sharply? #HighYieldBonds #FinancialInsights #MarketTrends #DeutscheBank #BankOfAmerica #Finance Source: Bloomberg, Deutsche Bank.

The recent BofA Credit Investor Survey reveals significant shifts in market sentiment. For Investment Grade (IG) investors, net positioning dropped to -8% net underweight in November from a +8% net overweight in September. Conversely, High Yield (HY) witnessed an uptick, reaching +18% net overweight in November, the highest since Jan-2022. Notably, HY investors are more optimistic about spreads, with the net share expecting wider spreads dropping significantly for the 3 and 6-month horizons. Delving deeper into investor positioning, the HY landscape presents a nuanced picture. The primary repositioning in November focused on the #frontend (1-3y) and #higherquality of the HY. Many asset allocators are embracing a barbell strategy, blending exposure to the intermediate/long end of high-quality corporate bonds or Treasuries with a portion invested in the front end of the US HY, enhancing the average yield. The goal is to navigate economic uncertainties by benefiting from the safety of high-quality fixed income and compensating for potential defaults in the HY space. Could this strategic approach push the HY-IG Yield Ratio lower, considering it already reaches post-GFC lows? #CreditMarkets #Investing #FinanceInsights 📊💼 Source: BoFA

Ford's recent credit rating upgrade to Investment Grade status triggered a remarkable $46.8 billion exit from junk bond indexes, marking the most significant reduction in the global junk bond benchmark since 2005. This makes Ford the largest "rising star" in history. It underscores a transformation in corporate priorities, with a heightened focus on financial resilience amidst economic uncertainties. The trend of "fallen angels" descending into junk status has notably decelerated, and analysts anticipate more companies achieving investment grade status in the coming years. Source: Bloomberg #Finance #InvestmentGrade #JunkBonds 📉📊📈

Source: TME

The disparity between cash and synthetic in High Yield (HY) has recently hit levels not witnessed since October 2022. While HY credit spreads in the cash bond market appear more resilient in response to the rapid increase in real rates, the CDX HY index, comprised of 5-year CDS of HY companies, has expanded by over 60 bps in just two weeks. The question now is, how long will this disconnect between the two markets persist? Source: Bloomberg #HighYield #CreditMarkets #Finance #Investing