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22 Feb 2024

US yields surged after terrible 20Y Auction with biggest tail on record.

The high yield of 4.595% was well above last month's 4.423% but worse, it tailed the yields that prevailed when it was issued (4.562%) by a whopping 3.30bps, which was the biggest tail on record for the tenor since the 20Y auction was introduced in May 2020. The bid to cover tumbled to 2.39, down from 2.53, well below the 2.59 six-auction average, and was the lowest since August 2022. The internals were even uglier, with Indirects awarded just 59.08%, lower than last month's 62.16%, sharply lower than recent average of 68.2% and the lowest since May 2021. And with Directs taking down 19.7%, Dealers were left holding 21.2%, the most since May 2021. Overall this was a very ugly auction, perhaps one can attribute it to nerves from today's FOMC Minutes which however should be a non-event as they are already rather dated and do not reflect the latest reflationary spike. In any case, yields promptly spiked with the 10Y rising as high as 4.325% before retracing some of the move, which also sent stocks sliding briefly before recovering. Source:

16 Jan 2024

Life below zero...


12 Jan 2024

The last 4 times the 10Y Minus 3M Treasury Yield Curve inverted, it led to the 1990s recession, the Dotcom Bust, the Global Financial Crisis, and the 2020 Recession.

Will this time be different? 🤔 Source: Barchart

5 Jan 2024

Could a hot US job print invalidate the downward trend in bond yields?

The US 10 year is flirting with the massive 4% levels again. A close above it and things could become even more "dynamic" to the upside. Note 21 day right here, while 50 day remains way higher. Source: Refinitiv, TME

22 Dec 2023

Bond trade looks a bit crowded: Record 62% of Fund Managers polled by BofA in December expect bond yields to be lower in 12 months’ time.

Source: BofA, HolgerZ

4 Dec 2023

A BofA report shows the remarkable correlation between the Austria government 100-year bond and Ark Invest Innovation ETF

Their point: if bond yields are going "tactically" lower, "distressed tech" is set for a big rally... Source: BofA,

24 Nov 2023

Global Property Guide

Q2 2023 gross rental yields for apartments/condos in over 250 cities across 60+ countries: Dublin: 7.70% Istanbul: 6.21% Dubai: 6.13% Warsaw: 6.02% Madrid: 5.27% Athens: 5.25% Amsterdam: 5.00% Singapore: 4.78% Vienna: 3.29% Zurich: 3.11% Hong Kong: 3.08% Source:

15 Nov 2023

What a day...

The US 10-year note yield fell sharply to 4.49%, after CPI inflation hits 3.2% in October. The 10-year note yield went down 20 basis points in 24 hours. Meanwhile, the U.S. Dollar Index $DXY had its biggest drop in more than a year. Source: The Kobeissi Letter, Barchart

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