Over-optimistic sentiment can stay extended / “stretched” for long periods of time.
Over-optimistic sentiment can stay extended / “stretched” for long periods of time. Source: Goldman Sachs
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index slumped to a 15-month low, with the gauge now down over 11% from a September peak
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index slumped to a 15-month low, with the gauge now down over 11% from a September peak. hedgefunds had been bracing for weakness, as they turned net sellers of the dollar for the first time since March, according to data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission aggregated by Bloomberg. The dollar’s resilience has confounded bears who had warned that the currency was headed for a multi-year decline following a surge in 2022. But there’s a growing conviction that they may finally be proven right as easing inflation backs the case for the us central bank to wrap up its rate-hike campaign in the coming months. Source: Bloomberg
Is this the biggest risk for the equity "bears"
Is this the biggest risk for the equity "bears". As highlighted by Goldman, there is a $5 Trillion “wedge” between Money Market Funds and bonds vs. equities... As investors realize that the much feared recession is not happening, they might be willing to move from the sidelines back into risk assets. Goldman's Rubner calls it a "R.I.N.O market" (Recession In Name Only).
3 reasons why the fed will hike this month (despite the lower us cpi print)...
Source: C. Barraud
On the back of the lower us cpi print, Euro rose sharply against dollar
On the back of the lower us cpi print, Euro rose sharply against dollar, closing at the highest level since March 2022, completely decoupled from its macro data.. Source: Bloomberg, www.zerohedge,com
Global investors holding $70 trillion in wealth are the biggest underserved candidates for private alternative assets.
Global investors holding $70 trillion in wealth are the biggest underserved candidates for private alternative assets. At a glance: -> Many wealthy investors want to increase their holdings of private alternative assets, with between $8 trillion and $12 trillion in household funds available for such assets. private equity firms and asset and wealth managers are eager to expand their business with individuals. -> For this market to thrive, the current model must evolve into a robust digital system that can efficiently support individual investors at scale. -> Five business archetypes are emerging to overcome the current barriers of high administrative costs, illiquidity, a difficult collateral process for lending, and high minimum investment size. -> The largest wealth and asset managers will likely catalyze developments and can seize a first-mover advantage. Other firms can thrive as challengers or fast followers. Find out more in the Bain & Company research note attached. Grégory Garnier Sound: Bain & Company
80% of stocks in the SP500 are now above their 50-DMAs
80% of stocks in the SP500 are now above their 50-DMAs. Looking at this breadth reading across sectors, it's cyclicals surging and defensives lagging behind. Source: bespoke
Skin in the game matters
Source: Compounding Quality
