A legend just passes away.
Mark Mobius put emerging markets on investors' radar with on-the-ground insights. I had the privilege to meet him. He was a true gentleman and a source of inspiration for generations of investors.
China’s economy gathered steam in the first quarter
Robust exports offset sluggish domestic consumption, though an energy shock stemming from the Iran war threatens to sap global demand and undercut that momentum. ➡️ Gross domestic product grew 5% in the three months to March, accelerating from 4.5% in the prior quarter. ➡️ Urban fixed-asset investment climbed 1.7% in the first quarter from a year earlier. ➡️ China’s retail sales grew 1.7% in March from a year earlier. Industrial output expanded 5.7%. ➡️ The urban survey-based unemployment rate in March was 5.4%, picking up from 5.3% in February. In the first quarter, China’s exports grew 14.7% from a year earlier in terms of U.S. dollars, the fastest pace since early 2022, according to EUI. That said, that growth has stalled as the Middle East conflict rages on. As the world’s largest oil importer and a heavily export-reliant economy, China is vulnerable to an oil shock that’s already slowing trade, pushing up factory costs, and darkening the outlook for the rest of the year. Source: CNBC
Oil flows from the Gulf
"Estimated oil flows from the Gulf (including pipeline redirections) increased to 10.4mb/d or 45% of normal on higher Yanbu exports as Saudi East-West pipeline full pumping capacity was restored within 4 days after the damage." Source: Goldman, zerohedge
HUGE: The US exported a record 12.7 million barrels of oil per day last week amid the Iran War.
Source: Bloomberg
China's oil supply pre-war:
29% Other Middle East, Hormuz blocked 26% Rest of world , scrambling 20% Russia, back to sanction as US just confirmed 14% Saudi Arabia , 700K bpd offline 11% Iran, blockaded⚠️ That's 54% of China's oil either blocked, sanctioned or disrupted. Source: Jack Prandelli on X, Bloomberg
“Brazil: the new gold”
Source: BofA
Trump said China had allegedly agreed not to supply weapons to Iran as part of deal tied to keeping the Strait of Hormuz open.
- Says he is opening the strait "for China too, and the World" - He expects to meet Xi soon. Claims Xi Jinping will give him "a big, fat, hug" when he visits in a few weeks - Says both countries are "working together smartly and very well" - Adds the U.S. remains "far better than anyone else" at fighting if needed - "This situation will never happen again"
The underperformance in "secular growth stocks" according to Goldman "has reflected a sharp contraction in valuation multiples.
Since the peak in broad US equity market valuation multiples in October 2025, valuations for companies with high expected sales growth have de-rated sharply. The forward P/E for median Rule of 10 secular growth stock has declined from 36x in October 2025 to 27x, which ranks in just the 35th percentile since 2010." Source: Goldman Sachs, Neil Sethi
