London office deals slumped to lowest for 20 years
Almost no one was buying office space in the capital in the final quarter of 2022. Less than £400 million of offices were bought and sold, an 88% drop from the prior quarter, according to CoStar. That’s worse than the decline during the financial crisis or Covid lockdowns. Source: Bloomberg
Global stocks have gained $3.3tn in market cap last week
Global stocks have gained $3.3tn in market cap last week thanks to growing evidence of soft landing/mild recession economic scenario, characterized by cooling inflation, non-recessionary growth, & reduced monetary tightening overhang. All stocks are now worth $103tn, equal to 106% of global GDP. Source: Bloomberg, HolgerZ
The housing boom is finally over in Germany
The housing boom is finally over in Germany as prices for residential properties drop for the first time since GFC in 2009. Europace German House Price Index dropped 0.8% in 2022 w/existing homes down 6%. Source: Bloomberg, HolgerZ
Where does the world's crude oil come from?
Source: Investwise
So far in January, BoJ has bought 13 trillion Yen in JGBs to hold its 0.5% cap on 10-year yield. That's almost 26 trillion if we extrapolate this pace to the rest of the month. Unsustainable.
Time is rapidly running out for BoJ yield curve control. Source: Robin Brooks
US earnings for the week
Source: Earnings Whispers
Close to $11T US Treasury bonds maturing in the next 24 months need to be refinanced
Current Funding Rate of these bonds hovers between1.6% to 1.9% The new one ranges between 3.4% and 4.6%. The debt service as a % of the US budget will explode from 8% to nearly 17%... Source: Lawrence McDonald, Manhattan Institute
The lessons from 2001-2004
We’re now in 2001 with respect to currently unprofitable companies. The market prices of all companies that were unprofitable in 2001 didn't make any progress in the 3 years that followed. Those that turned profitable by 2004 were a ~3x on average. Source: Value investigator
