The US Treasury has become a key driver of stocks and other asset markets through its pro-cyclical issuance of debt and the increasing depth and liquidity of repo markets
Writes net treasury issuance leads global equity prices by about 6-9mths due to repo markets. The rise in the volume of collateralized lending, i.e. repo, facilitated by the increase in the supply of USTs is increasingly influential for the behavior of asset prices. Source: HolgerZ, Bloomberg
While Europe is deindustrializing, US industrial renaissance is in full swing
17% annual return anyone? Source: Michel A.Arouet, BofA
Another shocking chart: oil in gold terms at 40 year low
Source: www.zerohedge.com, Bloomberg
The Argentina ETF $ARGT has been the best performing out of 46 country ETFs since 11/17/23 prior to President Milei's election victory as well as year-to-date in 2024
Source: Bespoke
A shocking chart...
'In gold terms, the SP500 is exactly where it was in August 1971. The significance of that date is that it was the moment when President Richard Nixon severed the dollar's link to gold". Source: Bloomberg, Jesse Felder @jessefelder on X
BREAKING 🚨 Still a very uncertain race...
Donald Trump is officially leading Kamala Harris in odds to win the 2024 presidential election, according to Polymarket. Kamala Harris has erased a 10 percentage point lead seen just over a week ago. Source: The Kobeissi Letter
2 key takeaways from saudi budget data in the 1st half of 2024
1. Saudi needs oil at $95 to balance its budget. 2. Adding domestic investments by the sovereign wealth fund, the figure rises to $112. If Oil price stays at this level ($77), deficits are likely to persist. Source: Bloomberg, @ZiadMDaoud on X
BREAKING 🚨 US employment data...
Federal Reserves faces up to 1 million US jobs "vanishing" in potentially the largest downward jobs revision in 15 years, according to Bloomberg Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and Wells Fargo & Co. economists expect the government’s preliminary benchmark revisions on Wednesday to show payrolls growth in the year through March was at least 600,000 weaker than currently estimated — about 50,000 a month. While JPMorgan Chase & Co. forecasters see a decline of about 360,000, Goldman Sachs indicates it could be as large as a million. There are a number of caveats in the preliminary figure, but a downward revision to employment of more than 501,000 would be the largest in 15 years and suggest the labor market has been cooling for longer — and perhaps more so — than originally thought. The final numbers are due early next year. Such figures also have the potential of shaping the tone of Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s speech at week’s end in Jackson Hole, Wyoming. Investors are trying to gain insight as to when and how much the central bank will start lowering interest rates as inflation and the job market cool. Source: Yahoo Finance, Bloomberg
