Here she is...
Source: Barchart
FED cuts rates by 50bp to 4.75%-5% range
The Federal Reserve lowered its benchmark interest rate by a half percentage point Wednesday, in an aggressive start to a policy shift aimed at bolstering the US labor market.Committee sees another half-point of cuts in rest of 2024Policymakers penciled in an additional percentage point of cuts in 2025, according to their median forecast.
Soft landing? Hard landing? Or no landing?
Atlanta Fed Q3 Real GDP growth Nowcast model just hit 3%...
FED WILL CUT RATES ON WEDNESDAY FOR THE 1ST TIME IN 4.5 YEARS Stocks usually fall ~15% within 12 months following the 1st cut if there is a recession
If no recession, stocks rise by >10%. Key caveat is, that we will know if there was a recession a few months after the cut. Source: Global Markets Investor
Market pricing now suggests a 50bps cut from the Fed is now base case (nearly 70% probability)
Source: Bloomberg, David Ingles
Should the FED cut rates next week, the easing cycle will start with an unemployment rate which is on the low side vs. history
Source: RBC, Bloomberg
Fed Expected to Cut Rates by 25 Basis Points After Inflation Data; Bitcoin Remains Stable
U.S. inflation came in as expected, increasing the likelihood of a 25 basis point Fed rate cut, with market expectations rising to 83%. A 50 basis point cut is now only 17% likely. The bond market now expects a 25 bps Fed rate cut this month, not 50 bps. The 2-year yield hit 3.69%, and the hashtag#Fed's held rates at 5.25%-5.5% since July 2023. Investors eye 140 bps in cuts by Jan '25. Source: Luc Sternberg, coinoptix, Bloomberg
Morgan Stanley's CIO Michael Wilson says "yen carry trade risk lingers for US stocks"
Source: Bloomberg
