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19 Jul 2023

US equity markets have decoupled from the global liquidity proxy for the first time in over a decade.

Is the market pricing in a massive global re-liquification of asset markets? Source: Bloomberg

19 Jul 2023

The Nations SkewDex, which is a proxy of long put demand, reached the lowest level since data are recorded.

The Nations SkewDex compares the cost of out-of-the-money SPY put options to the cost of precisely at-the-money SPY options. Source: Bloomberg, C.Barraud

17 Jul 2023

The S&P 500 is up 17.5% year-to-date. In the last 20 years only 2019 had a better start. $SPX

Source: Charlie Bilello

17 Jul 2023

The S&P 500's 25% gain since last year's low has been driven by valuation expansion rather than rising earnings

The S&P 500's 25% gain since last year's low has been driven by valuation expansion rather than rising earnings. There is hope that earnings will start recovering in Q3 and through 2024. Source: Edward Jones

17 Jul 2023

Since 1941 strong first half S&P 500 performance has been associated with further gains in the second half of the year, though with more volatility

Since 1941 strong first half S&P 500 performance has been associated with further gains in the second half of the year, though with more volatility. Past performance does not guarantee future results... Source: Edward Jones

17 Jul 2023

The S&P 500 is currently trading ~12.5% above its 200-day Moving Average

The S&P 500 is currently trading ~12.5% above its 200-day Moving Average. We haven't seen $SPY this far above its 200-day since August of 2021, nearly two years ago. While it looks over-extended, it is not unsustainable. For instance, study the left side of the chart from Nov '20 - Aug '21 Source: Grayson Roze

14 Jul 2023

S&P 500 peak in January 2022 vs. peaks in October 2007 and March 2000...

Source: Charlie Bilello

14 Jul 2023

The sp500 has been anticipating the improvement in earnings (ex-Energy) expectations so far. Can these expectations be met?

Source: Bloomberg (Gina Martin Adams for the #chart)

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