U.S. earnings Revisions Index from Citi has been in negative territory for past six weeks …
Longest streak since beginning of this year. Source: Bloomberg, Liz Ann Sonders
S&P 500 hits fresh 52-week high while the Dow heads for 13th straight daily gain as markets hope that the US interest rate hikes cycle is over.
The Fed just said they are taking a "meeting by meeting" approach to future interest rate policy. As expected, the Fed raised interest rates to the highest level in 22yrs as expected and left the door open to additional increases as officials fine-tune their effort to further quell inflation. The quarter percentage-point hike, a unanimous decision, lifted the target range for the Fed’s benchmark federal funds rate to 5.25% to 5.5%, the highest level since 2001. It marked the 11th increase since March 2022, when the rate was near zero. Source: Bloomberg, HolgerZ
S&P 500 Forward Earnings Yield
The S&P 500 equity risk premium hit the lowest level in two decades, which will be a headwind for longer-term returns. Source: The Daily Shot
The disconnect between Fed net liquidity (grey) and the S&P 500 (purple) is growing by the day
source: Markets & Mayhem
Barron's insider ratio has turned bearish. What do they know that retail investors don't?
(This is the ratio of insiders sales to buys - readings under 12:1 are bullish. Those over 20:1 are bearish) Source Chart: Barrons
The last time The Dow had a longer winning streak than this (12 straight days) was in Jan 1987 (13 days - the all-time record win streak)...
Source: Bloomberg, www.zerohedge.com
Alphabet shares rose about 7% in extended trading on Tuesday after the company reported better-than-expected revenue and profit, driven by growth in its cloud-computing unit.
For the fourth straight quarter, Google’s parent company reported growth in the single digits as it reckons with a pullback in digital ad spending that reflects concerns about the economy. Analysts don’t expect growth to hit double digits again until the fourth quarter. $GOOG Alphabet Q2 FY23 details by App Economy Insights • Revenue +7% Y/Y to $74.6B ($1.8B beat) • Operating margin 29% (+1pp Y/Y) • EPS $1.44 ($0.10 beat) ☁️ Google Cloud: • Revenue +28% Y/Y to $8.0B. • Operating margin 5% (+14pp Y/Y). ▶️ YouTube ads +4% to $7.7B. Source: App Economy Insights, CNBC
When it comes to the rush into AI stocks, these 2 charts are not easy to interpret from a contrarian perspective
On one hand, record inflows into AI etfs could mean there is too much "hot money" = BEARISH from a contrarian perspective. On the other hand, shorts continue to accumulate positions betting on a collapse of AI-related mega-caps tech stocks. This is BULLISH from a contrarian perspective. Source chart: JPM, TME
