US credit delinquencies including housing have now risen above 2009 levels.
Source: Sven Henrich
93% of the US yield curve is currently inverted
Source: Tavi Costa, Crescat Capital, Bloomberg
Traders are boosting their bets against the US dollar.
Source: The Daily Shot
Something very unusual has been taking place since the start of the 2Q earnings season
US stocks that beat earnings are being sold... very unusual. Source: www.zerohedge.com
The median price of an existing home sold in the US is up 14% from the January low, now less than 1% below its all-time high from June 2022.
How could it be? Consider the #chart below courtesy of Charlie Bilello: The US Population is 19% higher than where it was in January 2000 while the inventory of Existing Homes for sale in the US is 37% lower. Economics 101 -> higher demand and lower supply drive prices higher.
There is always a bear market somewhere...
The meltdown in US commercial and industrial (C&I) loan growth is staggering. Cumulative C&I lending is -1.0% since the start of 2023 (red). Median growth by this point in the year is +4.5% (black), while 2022 was up +9.3% by this point (blue). Big US investment slump is underway... Source: Robin Brooks
Remember the debt ceiling crisis?
Source: Charlie Bilello
Japanese stocks have an earnings yield that is 612bps above the yield on 10-year Japanese government bonds
Put that in context; in the US, the gap is only 113bps. Little room for error in the US, plenty of room in Japan. This is a margin of safety concept. Source: Jeff Weniger
