With 46% of companies reported, S&P 500 Q2 GAAP earnings per share are up 7% over the last year, the highest YoY growth rate since Q4 2021.
Source: Charlie Bilello
US Treasuries sold off yesterday and are now on the verge of a breakdown from support
The chart below courtesy of Crescat Capital / Tavi Costa is a reminder of the divergence between rising yields and the highly valued Nasdaq index. Is this divergence sustainable? Source: Bloomberg, Tavi Costa
It has never been cheaper to hedge against a market crash
According to Bank of America's derivatives strategists, it has never cost less to protect against an #sp500 crash drawdown in the next 12 months. Why is the cost of longer-dated S&P protection at record lows today? The most common explanations are a mix of fundamentals (e.g. a recession, if it materializes, will be short-lived and shallow; or, realized correlation is too low to warrant higher implied correlation) and vol technicals (e.g. the supply of vega on US underlyings for yield remains robust; or, due to the rise of short-dated option selling, the next shock will likely be a “gamma event” in which systemic tenors of risk don’t react strongly). Source: BofA, www.zerohedge.com
U.S. earnings Revisions Index from Citi has been in negative territory for past six weeks …
Longest streak since beginning of this year. Source: Bloomberg, Liz Ann Sonders
S&P 500 hits fresh 52-week high while the Dow heads for 13th straight daily gain as markets hope that the US interest rate hikes cycle is over.
The Fed just said they are taking a "meeting by meeting" approach to future interest rate policy. As expected, the Fed raised interest rates to the highest level in 22yrs as expected and left the door open to additional increases as officials fine-tune their effort to further quell inflation. The quarter percentage-point hike, a unanimous decision, lifted the target range for the Fed’s benchmark federal funds rate to 5.25% to 5.5%, the highest level since 2001. It marked the 11th increase since March 2022, when the rate was near zero. Source: Bloomberg, HolgerZ
S&P 500 Forward Earnings Yield
The S&P 500 equity risk premium hit the lowest level in two decades, which will be a headwind for longer-term returns. Source: The Daily Shot
The disconnect between Fed net liquidity (grey) and the S&P 500 (purple) is growing by the day
source: Markets & Mayhem
Barron's insider ratio has turned bearish. What do they know that retail investors don't?
(This is the ratio of insiders sales to buys - readings under 12:1 are bullish. Those over 20:1 are bearish) Source Chart: Barrons
