Speculators have ramped up their bets against long-dated US bonds due to the rising prospects of Trump 2.0.
Source: Bloomberg, HolgerZ
The Japanese Yen is up against the US dollar to its strongest level since mid-June.
The USD-JPY currency pair is down over 3% since Thursday after hitting a 38-year high following another round of intervention by Japan’s Ministry of Finance. Japanese authorities reportedly spent $22 billion on Thursday and Friday to prop up the yen, according to Bloomberg. This comes after Japan spent a record $62 billion to support the currency between April 26th and May 29th. Over the last 12 months, the Yen has declined by ~12% and has been the worst-performing currency of G10. Source: The Kobeissi Letter
US National debt. A bit of maths...
The current level is almost $35 trillion. And the government has baked in minimum $2 trillion deficits going forward. There are $5 trillion in government revenues per year. 100% of government revenue is consumed by Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid and interest on the debt. Interest on the debt is WAY over $1 trillion per year, more than 20% of government revenue. It takes another $2 trillion minimum per year to fund defense and all of the other departments of the government that they are unwilling to cut. There are also extra items like Ukraine and whatever the wars going on that get additional off budget funding. It should thus keep rising. Source: Wall Street Silver, ABC News
BREAKING: Nancy Pelosi has told US House Democrats that President Biden can be "persuaded fairly soon" to exit the 2024 presidential race.
New reports from Fox Business state that President Biden may drop out as soon as tomorrow. Source: Politico, The Kobeissi Letter
JUST IN 🚨: China dumped an ALL-TIME HIGH $42.6 billion worth of U.S. Securities in May
Source: Barchart
The US dollar index $DXY and the 10-year yield $TNX are both breaking down.
Source: Steven Strazza, All Star Charts
Over the last few months, week-ends have been full of surprise
Can we get a new one this week? Obama says President Biden "needs to seriously consider the viability of his candidacy." Top Democrats have said Biden may drop out of the 2024 election AS SOON AS THIS WEEK-END. Odds of Biden winning election are plummeting again (note that the fact he is COVID-positive doesn't help either) Source: The Kobeissi Letter
2025 and 2026 look much better for US small caps earnings, relative to large caps
Source: JPM, RBC
