Jamie Dimon's 61 page annual shareholder letter is finally out for FY2023!
-A rate spike is very possible with stickier inflation. Interest rates could soar to 8% -Says Federal deficit is a real issue hurting business confidence (govt spending could keep rates high) -US economy resilient so far with consumer spending, but the economy has also been fueled by government deficit spending and past stimulus -Market is pricing in 70-80% chance of a soft landing/no landing...Dimon thinks that is too high -Inflation resurgence, political polarization are risks for this year (Ukraine, Middle East, China) - AI may be as impactful on humanity as the printing press Source: SpecialSitsNews, Barchart
The US Federal debt is set to DOUBLE in just 8 years, rising from $20 trillion in 2017 to $40 trillion in 2025.
Currently, US Federal debt is rising by a whopping $1 trillion every 100 days. To put this in perspective, if US debt hits $40 trillion in 2025 that would be a $17 TRILLION increase since 2020. That would be a ~570% jump in US Federal debt since 2000, a 25-year period. The worst part? This analysis assumes that we are on track for a "soft landing." What happens if a recession hits? Source: The Kobeissi Letter, BofA
Will the big deflationary wave out of China offset the inflationary pressures stemming from rising oil prices and hot job market in the US?
Source: Michel A.Arouet
Estimated People's Bank of China (PBOC) gold holdings
Source: World Gold Council, Gainesville Coins
Bearish Bets against the Japanese Yen reach highest level in 17 years
Source: Barchart, Bloomberg
A great chart by Quartr about swiss luxury giant Richemont
In 1987, Bernard Arnault created $LVMH. In 1988, Johann Rupert created richemont $CFR.SW – an acquisition-driven luxury group much like LVMH, and to date, one of Arnault's largest competitors. Richemont is now the second largest luxury conglomerate and the third largest luxury company (with $RMS being the second) in the world. The group's many prestigious maisons include Cartier, Van Cleef & Arpels, Montblanc, Piaget, and Vacheron Constantin, to name a few. Since inception, Richemont has compounded its top line at 5% per year. Looking instead at the last 15 years, the group has grown its revenue and FCF at a 6% and 9% CAGR respectively. Quartr just created this infographic, mapping out every acquisition since Richemont's inception.
Chinese gold ETFs have cornered the bulk of the inflows in Asia this year.
Source: David Ingles
And the Winner is…
Via @PendulumFlow thru Michel A.Arouet
