Have analysts become too bullish on the S&P 500 ???
Source: Markets & Mayhem
Based on futures market positioning, hedge funds and asset managers have been missing the rally
Source: Trend labs
President Trump has officially FIRED Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook after Bill @Pulte exposed her for MORTGAGE FRAUD. Cook was appointed by Biden in 2022.
President Trump cited Article II of the Constitution and the Federal Reserve Act of 1913 to justify firing Cook over alleged mortgage fraud. He claimed, via a Truth Social post, that Cook’s dual declaration of primary residences and false statements on mortgage documents meet the broad, historically strict “cause” standard required for removal under the Federal Reserve Act. ➡️ The Federal Reserve Board is undergoing a transition and is increasingly influenced by Trump. If Cook’s removal stands and Powell steps down after his term as chair, Trump could appoint up to five of the seven governors, securing a lasting majority ➡️ “I will not resign,” said Cook, who hired high-profile attorney Abbe Lowell to challenge her purported termination; she says ‘he has no authority to do so. “President Trump purported to fire me ‘for cause’ when no cause exists under the law, and he has no authority to do so,” said Cook in a statement late Monday. “I will not resign.” Abbe Lowell, a lawyer for Cook, said Trump’s move “is flawed and his demands lack any proper process, basis or legal authority. We will take whatever actions are needed to prevent his attempted illegal action.” 👉 This development introduces significant uncertainty for markets regarding the Fed's independence, forward guidance, and interest rate policy. After the initial reaction, attention will likely shift to the nomination process. If Trump moves quickly to appoint candidates favouring looser monetary policy, the likelihood of earlier and steeper rate cuts could rise materially, though potential legal challenges and political pushback may moderate expectations
So Lisa Cook is fighting Trump by using his own rules
1) Attack; 2) Deny: 3) Never Show Defeat Will it work?
Has the dollar bottomed?
An interesting regularity is emerging for the Dollar. Payrolls revisions (Aug 1), CPI (Aug 12) and Powell's Jackson Hole speech drag the Dollar down, but each low after one of these hits is higher than the one before and the Dollar then resumes its rise. Source: Robin Brooks
This is BCA's "Chart Of The Week": Has momentum turned in equities?
Two momentum signals: 1) Value vs. Growth just flipped positive for the first time since mid-2024. 2) Small vs. Large has been rising since late 2024. BCA team noted this rare alignment has historically fueled multi-quarter cyclical outperformance. Source: BCA
This is a composite of stocks that trade on the world's most important stock exchange.
After consolidating for about 10 months, the NYSE Composite Index just closed at the highest levels ever. Source: J-C Parets
And suddendly, EU exports to Kyrgystan exploded...
What happened? Source: Robin Brooks
