A fascinating chart by James Bianco ->
The 10-year yield (blue) and Trump's Political Betting probabilities (orange). The chart starts the day Biden dropped out. Coincidence, or are these series related? If they are related, what happens to 10-year yields if the orange line (man) goes to 100 in 14 days? Source: Bianco Research
What could be the tax effects on SP500 EPS based on a Trump or Harris win? Here's what BofA projects:
- They said a Harris administration would be a 4.7% headwind to overall S&P EPS growth and a Trump administration would be a 4% tailwind to S&P earnings. - The only caveat here is if we have a split congress. If so, Kamala may win but not be able to pass sweeping tax policies. Given current market action, it seems the market is currently pricing in those 2 scenarios: 1) Either Trump wins 2) or if Kamala does, she can’t pass her new tax policies because of a divided congress. Source: amit @amitisinvesting on X, BofA
⁉️IS THE US DOLLAR RESERVE CURRENCY STATUS STRENGTHENING⁉️
The US Dollar share in global payments jumped to 49% in 2024 the highest since 2012. This is up from ~40% at the beginning of 2022. The Euro share has plummeted to ~21%. The US dollar fall does not look so imminent. Source: Global Markets Investor
Japan is the perfect example of the failure of Keynesian policies.
More government spending only generates more debt and stagnation, and with years of printing, the yen keeps depreciating. Graphs JP Morgan and Bloomberg thru Daniel Lacalle on X
The NFT bubble was as bad as the Tulips one.
They aren’t ever coming back. Imagine paying $1 million for one a few years ago Source: tealthQE4 (@QE Infinity) on X
Global Equity Returns this year...
Source: Charlie Bilello
This is quite impressive ... the S&P 500 is up by 38.8% year/year.
Going back to 2000, there are only 25 weeks that had stronger gains, 24 of which were either in 2010 or 2021. Source: Bloomberg, Kevin Gordon on X
Uranium stocks ETF $URA is up +11% last week and +16% for the month, outpacing all other sectors.
Shares in nuclear energy companies surged to record highs last week after Amazon and Google struck landmark power supply deals, boosting efforts to deploy the first small modular reactors (SMRs) in the US. The share prices of US-listed SMR developers Oklo Inc and NuScale power rose by 99% and 36% respectively in the past week, after rivals X-energy and Kairos Power, two private SMR developers, announced the financing agreements. Shares in Cameco, Oklo, NuScale, Constellation and BWX Technologies all traded at record highs over the week. Source: FT
