The Three Inflationary Waves of the 1970s
As highlighted by Tavi Costa / Crescat Capital, inflation tends to develop through waves. Just as base effects played a crucial role in reducing inflation rates so far this year, it does not mean that CPI might reach and stay at a low level. Indeed, while the macro environment today differs from that of the 1970s or 1940s, there are some underlying issues which could continue to drive inflation rates higher: ▪️ Irresponsible levels of government spending ▪️ Escalating deglobalization trends, which necessitate the revitalization of manufacturing capabilities in economies. ▪️ Wage-price spiral, particularly driven by low-income segments of the society ▪️ Ongoing supply constraints due to chronic
Despite weak US retail sales, yesterday was another strong session for us stocks after Microsoft $MSFT announced new pricing for its AI offerings...
For context, $MSFT and $NVDA have added $175BN market cap today, more than the mkt cap of 462 S&P companies, and more than the value of Nike, Wells Fargo, Walt Disney, Morgan Stanley, Intel, etc This ai related news drove value back near its record lows relative to growth... Source: Bloomberg, www.zerohedge.com
First ETF with 100% protection against losses launches in US
Is it the perfect product? The world's first ETF to offer 100% protection against losses (not including management and transaction fees) launched today in the U.S. The Innovator Equity Defined Protection ETF $TJUL will focus on the SP500 and use options to shield investors from losses. The fund, which requires investors to forgo some potential gains, is aiming to disrupt the annuities market. Source: Barchart, FT
After adjusting for inflation, US Retail Sales fell 2.5% over the last year, the 8th consecutive YoY decline.
That's the longest down streak since 2009. Nominal retail sales increased 0.5% YoY vs. historical average of 4.7%. Source: Charlie Bilello
Nice look at just how powerful the "Super 7" stocks have been to $SPY and $QQQ, contributing to 75% of their YTD gains.
This has sparked a torrent of flows into equal-weighted SPX ETF $RSP, which has blown away all other smart-beta #ETFs in flows this summer w/ +$6b, Sourc: Eric Balchunas, Bloomberg via JSeyff
Become a Millionaire with $300 per month
A visual guide of how compound interest works over time by Mark Wlosinski. It doesn’t take investing a lot of money to build wealth. You just need patience. NB: the S&P 500 has averaged +11% annual returns over the last 40 years.
BlackRock names Saudi Aramco CEO Amin Nasser to board
Middle East and Saudi Arabia strategic importance for the global economy and financial markets is growing at a fast pace. BlackRock said Monday that Amin Nasser, the CEO of Saudi Aramco, the world’s largest oil company, is joining the asset manager’s board of directors. The world’s largest asset manager said the move reflects the firm’s emphasis on the Middle East as part of its long-term strategy. BlackRock had more than $8 trillion in client assets under management as of 2022. (NB: Not sure that the #esg activists will like it...) Source: CNBC
Commercial real estate prices are still expected to crater, Morgan Stanley warns
Prepare for pain in the #us #commercial #realestate market warns Morgan Stanley which believes that prices could drop by as much as 27.4% from peak to trough by the end of 2024. And McKinsey believes prices could slide by as much as 42% in a worst case scenario. Source: barchart