Straight from the Desk

Syz the moment

Live feeds, charts, breaking stories, all day long.

25 Jul 2023

There is always a bear market somewhere...

The meltdown in US commercial and industrial (C&I) loan growth is staggering. Cumulative C&I lending is -1.0% since the start of 2023 (red). Median growth by this point in the year is +4.5% (black), while 2022 was up +9.3% by this point (blue). Big US investment slump is underway... Source: Robin Brooks

24 Jul 2023

Food for thought

Source: Michel A.Arouet

24 Jul 2023

Beware "no landing" is nothing new

Source: Michel A.Arouet

24 Jul 2023

Bitcoin volatility dips to yearly lows as FOMC meeting looms

Bitcoin ended its fourth week of narrow trading Sunday, sending volatility readings to levels not seen since the year began. The 30-day estimate for the world’s largest digital asset has fallen to just 0.74%, bitcoin’s lowest realized reading since Jan. 16 (71%), data from 99Bitcoins shows.

Bitcoin’s volatility details the measurement of how much its price shifts in a single day. The investment is riskier if the reading is significant, leading to harder-to-predict price swings. T3I’s BitVol Index, used to judge 30-day implied volatility for bitcoin options contracts, has also dipped to its lowest implied reading since its inception more than four years ago, data shows. CVI’s Crypto Volatility Index, designed to mimic similar functionality to that of the S&P 500’s VIX, has also dipped to its lowest recorded levels. The index takes into account both bitcoin and ether’s (ETH) implied volatility over a 30-day period.

Source: Blockworks

24 Jul 2023

Remember the debt ceiling crisis?

Source: Charlie Bilello

24 Jul 2023

Japanese stocks have an earnings yield that is 612bps above the yield on 10-year Japanese government bonds

Put that in context; in the US, the gap is only 113bps. Little room for error in the US, plenty of room in Japan. This is a margin of safety concept. Source: Jeff Weniger

24 Jul 2023

Investors are currently quite bearish on oil and commodities

The risk of higher energy and higher commodities prices in H2 doesn't seem to be priced by the market. Meanwhile, Crude Oil futures are pushing up against new 3-month highs. Could this be the big surprise of the second part of 2023? Source: All Star Charts

24 Jul 2023

J.P. Morgan Kolanovic & Dubravko -> The recent rise in market cap concentration has been the steepest on record based on >60 years of history

Even narrower leadership than seen during the TMT Bubble. Source: Seth Golden

Thinking out loud

Sign up for our weekly email highlighting the most popular posts.

Follow us

Thinking out loud

Investing with intelligence

Our latest research, commentary and market outlooks