The hedge factor
Gold is the "everything hedge", but if you are looking for global equity hedges, then VIX looks relatively more interesting compared to chasing gold here. Source: TME, LSEG
"Super investor performance" 2025 ranking
David Tepper has taken the top YTD performer spot due to his big investments in $BABA and $UNH Source: Victor H Investing @VictorH12581
Welcome to the era of stagflation-lite
Rising inflation Rising unemployment ...And a very skewed AI Boom The American middle class pays the heavy price, while the rich and superstar tech firms continue to thrive. Source: Heather Long @byHeatherLong
Intel $INTC stock just had its best day since OCTOBER 1987
Nvidia said it will invest $5 billion in Intel as part of a deal to co-develop data center and PC chips with the troubled chipmaker. The Trump administration brokered a 10% stake in the chipmaker in August. The investment, which is subject to regulatory approvals, does not appear to include the manufacturing of Nvidia chips with Intel's foundry. Source. CNBC
Gold miners are making record profits:
Production margins are at an all-time high as gold prices surge while costs rise much slower. Miners are now earning more per ounce than ever in the past 10 years. Meanwhile, gold miners ETF, $GDX, has skyrocketed 103% year-to-date. Source: Global Markets Investor
Uptober is right around the corner... $BTC
Since 2012, next month has been BY FAR the best performing month for Bitcoin: 🟢 82% win rate, average return of +18.4% Source: Trend Spider
Here's how the S&P 500 has performed in the past after the Fed starts cutting rates
Source: Evan @StockMKTNewz
🚨Jerome Powell and the Fed just cut rates by 0.25% down to between 4%-4.25%. Here's a high level summary 👇
➡️ RATES: The Fed cuts key overnight interest rate by 25bps to 4.00-4.25% range Fed projections show additional 50bps of cuts by year end, another 25 bps of cuts in each of the next two years. Fed says it is attentive to both sides of dual mandate ➡️VOTE SPLIT: New governor Miran dissented on policy decision, favoring 50bps cut. So only 1 dissent is positive. The Fed is remaining unified under Powell 😊 POWELL: "There wasn't widespread support at all for a 50 bps cut today." ➡️LABOUR MARKET: Says downside risks to employment have risen Job gains have slowed, unemployment has edged up but remains low ➡️INFLATION: Inflation has moved up and remains 'somewhat elevated' ➡️ECONOMY: Economic growth moderated over first half of this year ➡️ BALANCE SHEET: Fed maintains current pace of balance sheet drawdown ➡️SUMMARY ECONOMIC PROJECTIONS: GDP forecasts raised for 2025, 2026 and 2027 Unemployment rate forecast for 2025 unchanged, lowered for 2026 and 2027 PCE forecast for 2025 unchanged, raised for 2026, unchanged for 2027 Core PCE forecast for 2025 unchanged, raised for 2026 and unchanged for 2027 ➡️DOTS: The dots for 2025 were massively shifted lower with one member calling for 5 cuts in 2025. 7 of the 19 members see no more rate-cuts this year... 9 of 19 see 2 more cuts 2 of 19 see 1 more cuts 6 of 19 see no more cuts 1 sees 1 rate hike 1 sees 5 cuts (this is Stephen Miran) ⚠️Fed Funds rate forecast cut for 2025 from 3.9% to 3.6% or another 2 rate cuts. ⚠️The central bank gave a more hawkish outlook for rates in 2026, where officials are predicting only one more rate cut in the new year, slower than the current market pricing of two-to-three. The median forecast for 2026 pencils in just one more rate cut, after the two further moves this year. ⚠️ And then another cut in 2027 to 3.1% That would mean 125 basis points of cutting from September 2025 until the end of 2027. This way short of the 300 basis points Trump has wanted for, like, now. 📌 In a nutshell: The Fed is cutting rates, and projecting more rate cuts, at the same time as upgrading its growth forecast and nudging up its inflation outlook too... And now the HAWKISH 🤢 side of today's decision and ensuing press conference >>> Powell just said during his press conference after the decision he sees the move as a “risk-management cut.” Powell’s comments suggest this move was more of an insurance cut in case the economy dramatically slowed. Source: zerohedge, CNBC
