Keep this one for the difficult times...
Source: Andreas Steno Larsen, FT
The US Treasury has become a key driver of stocks and other asset markets through its pro-cyclical issuance of debt and the increasing depth and liquidity of repo markets
Writes net treasury issuance leads global equity prices by about 6-9mths due to repo markets. The rise in the volume of collateralized lending, i.e. repo, facilitated by the increase in the supply of USTs is increasingly influential for the behavior of asset prices. Source: HolgerZ, Bloomberg
BREAKING 🚨: Chinese Banks
40 Chinese Banks vanished during a single week in June Source: Barchart
American excess savings reached $2.1 trillion in 2021, but they ran dry months ago.
The pandemic savings cushions that helped Americans weather high prices in recent years have worn through, contributing to a loss of consumer firepower that’s rippling through the economy. Delinquencies are rising. Executives are flagging caution among shoppers in recent earnings calls, and retail sales barely increased in May after falling the month prior. Economists forecast solid inflation-adjusted consumer spending in data out Friday, helped by lower gasoline prices, but that would follow an outright decline in April. Source: Bloomberg, Lisa Abramowitz
$525 billion in bank losses should concern everyone.
Source: BofA, Red pill rick
According to Nikkei, Japans Norinchukin Bank:
Japan's 5th largest bank with $840 billion in assets - will sell more than 10 trillion yen ($63 billion) of its holdings of U.S. and European government bonds during the year ending March 2025 "as it aims to stem its losses from bets on low-yield foreign bonds, a main cause of its deteriorating balance sheet, and lower the risks associated with holding foreign government bonds."
** Regional Banking Crisis Alert! **
**Huntington Bank Spooks Investors Yesterday, Shares Plunged 6%** - **New Guidance:** Net interest income to fall 1% to 4% this year - **Previous Range:** -2% to +2% - **Impact:** Largest drop since March 2023 Source: The Coastal Journal
BREAKING: U.S. Banking System >>> FDIC warns that 63 Lenders are on the brink of insolvency due to banks sitting on $517 billion in unrealized losses
This is $39 billion higher than the $478 billion recorded in Q4 2023. The surge was driven by higher residential mortgage-backed securities losses held by banks due to rising mortgage rates. Q1 2024 also marked the 10th consecutive quarter of unrealized losses, an even longer streak than during the 2008 Financial Crisis. As “higher for longer” returns, unrealized losses are likely to continue rising. Source: BofA, The Kobeissi Letter
