Shifting Dynamics in 3-Month US Futures: A Hawkish Turn
The recent shift in the 3-month US futures market has grabbed investors' attention. FED Governor Powell's increasingly hawkish tone has sparked a repricing frenzy, altering market expectations for rate cuts. The latest data shows a significant turnaround, with futures no longer projecting any cuts in 2023 and only one in the first half of 2024. This remarkable repricing indicates a growing sentiment of an extended period of higher interest rates. The resurgence of the 3-month SOFR Future June 24 contract to pre-SVB crisis levels further underscores the market's confidence in this new direction. Source: Bloomberg
UK bond market is sending a signal!
The recent developments in the UK bond market have caught the attention of investors. In June, the UK yield curve (2s10s) experienced an unprecedented decline, marking one of the steepest drops in decades, and it is now approaching -100bps. This significant shift reflects the market's conviction that the Bank of England (BoE) will take decisive measures to combat inflation. However, it also raises concerns about the potential impact on the UK economy and its medium-term growth prospects. Should the BoE keep pushing the limits (rate hikes) until something breaks?
Limited Pressure from Issuance Activity for European High Yield Bonds in H2 2023!
The European high-yield (HY) market is expected to maintain a positive technical landscape in the second half of 2023, as corporate high-yield refinancing needs remain moderate. This favorable dynamic should counterbalance any potential outflows, as observed on the US market where HY funds are recording significant outflows, but offset by sluggish activity on the primary market. Source: CreditSights
Europe’s debt market sees first live deal halted this year
The EU market saw its first postponement of a live deal this year as borrowers struggled to tighten pricing in an active session for the market.
German building society Bausparkasse Schwaebisch Hall AG halted a €500 mio offering of 10y covered bonds after setting final terms. Source: Bloomberg
Global Yield Curves' (2s10s) inversion deepens, flashing recession signals
Source: Bloomberg TV Chart
Treasury longs extend
The latest JP Morgan client survey shows the most outright long positions since 2019. Source: Bloomberg
Riskier bank bonds back as returns rise, AT1 Market reopens
Two European banks on Tuesday sold the first
publicly-syndicated AT1 bonds on the continent since the Credit Suisse’s crisis.
Easing concerns about the health of the banking sector and hopes that major central banks are nearing the end of their tightening cycles contribute to the move. Source: Bloomberg
Attractiveness of EUR IG vs. US IG at decade high! 📈💼
🌍 Absolute yields in the global credit market present compelling long-term entry points, especially for high-quality European corporate bonds. Compared to the US market, the attractiveness of EUR Investment Grade (IG) credit is soaring. While concerns about a deeper recession in Europe have caused some turbulence, they have also opened up intriguing investment opportunities. Moreover, the recent Credit Suisse incident has further contributed to the dynamic landscape. 📊🔍 Is it time to seize the potential yield offered by EUR IG bonds? 💡💰 Source : Bloomberg
