Fed member Bostic just said that he sees just 2 interest rate cuts in 2024 for a total of 50 basis points
As highlighted by the Kobeissi Letter -> This ONE THIRD the amount of rate cuts that futures are currently pricing-in. Bostic also said that he is "not comfortable declaring victory" against inflation at this point. Meanwhile, markets see a base case of 150 basis points in rate cuts in 2024. There is even a ~24% chance of 175 basis points in rate cuts. The Fed to market disconnect is widening. Source: The Kobeissi Letter
Global Energy Shock Graph (only till 2020 unfortunately) Life without fossil fuels is not for tomorrow
Source: Willem Middelkoop
Key Events This Week
1. 10-Year Note Auction - Wednesday 2. crudeoil Inventories - Wednesday 3. December CPI Inflation data - Thursday (Crucial data ahead of the January Fed meeting). 4. Initial Jobless Claims - Thursday 5. December PPI Inflation data - Friday 6. Total of 4 Fed Members Speak 7. Earning season Kick-off with some big banks publishing on Friday - see below Source: The Kobeissi Letter, Earnings Whispers
One of the major risk for equity markets in the short-run is Euphoria that prevailed at the start of the year. In other words, positioning is uber-bullish and can only go down from here
As Goldman trader Cullen Morgan writes, after 9 consecutive weeks higher in the S&P (quite a rarity), sentiment and positioning in US equities is very stretched. On the positioning front, US futures length (see chart below) now stands near record highs. In past instances when non-dealer positioning has been greater than $130bn, near term returns have been strong, while returns further out (3-months to 1-year) tend to skew more negative… With the latest data at +$158bn, Goldman traders are very wary of this now being a larger headwind. Similarly, CTA positioning in US Equities is approaching 2023 highs. Bottom-line: any geopolitical or macro news (e.g too hot US jobs print) might lead to higher bond yields might might put some downside pressure on equity markets.
US interest rate futures are beginning to shift back in the less dovish direction
Odds of 7 or 8 interest rate cuts in 2024 have halved this week. Also, odds of rate cuts beginning this month are down to just 7%. However, the base case still shows 6 rate cuts for a total of 150 basis points in 2024. This is double the 3 rate cuts forecasted at the Fed's latest meeting. Source: The Kobeissi Letter
Abu Dhabi Royal Sets Up Firm to Hold $27 Billion in Assets
Abu Dhabi’s largest listed company, led by a key member of the emirate’s royal family, is setting up a new holding firm with assets worth 100 billion dirhams ($27 billion) across sectors ranging from financial services to mining. The new firm, called 2PointZero, will be transferred into Abu Dhabi’s $239 billion International Holding Co. Its holdings will include portions of Sheikh Tahnoon bin Zayed Al Nahyan’s sprawling empire, according to a statement late Tuesday. Lunate, Abu Dhabi’s newest fund, will be part of 2PointZero. International Resources Holding, which last month invested more than $1 billion in Zambia’s Mopani copper mine, will also be transferred into the vehicle. Other holdings will include private investment firm Chimera, Egypt’s Beltone Financial, crypto miner Citadel Technologies and Middle East-focused Sagasse Investments. Source: Bloomberg
Asset Class Returns since 2011...
Source: Charlie Bilello
The Dow plunged by 470 points yesterday amid what seems to be a massive sell-program
Indeed, starting around 1430ET yesterday, the biggest sell-program since July smashed Wall Street. For context, this size of selling pressure is unusual... Source: Bloomberg, www.zerohedge.com
