The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index slumped to a 15-month low, with the gauge now down over 11% from a September peak
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index slumped to a 15-month low, with the gauge now down over 11% from a September peak. hedgefunds had been bracing for weakness, as they turned net sellers of the dollar for the first time since March, according to data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission aggregated by Bloomberg. The dollar’s resilience has confounded bears who had warned that the currency was headed for a multi-year decline following a surge in 2022. But there’s a growing conviction that they may finally be proven right as easing inflation backs the case for the us central bank to wrap up its rate-hike campaign in the coming months. Source: Bloomberg
3 reasons why the fed will hike this month (despite the lower us cpi print)...
Source: C. Barraud
On the back of the lower us cpi print, Euro rose sharply against dollar
On the back of the lower us cpi print, Euro rose sharply against dollar, closing at the highest level since March 2022, completely decoupled from its macro data.. Source: Bloomberg, www.zerohedge,com
The swissfranc rises to strongest against the dollar since 2015
The swissfranc rises to strongest against the dollar since 2015 after weaker than expected US inflation data. Source: HolgerZ, Bloomberg
US inflation eased further in June w/core & headline coming in each at 0.2% MoM (v.s 0.3% expected).
Headline CPI slowed to 3% YoY vs 3.1% expected (and lowest since March 2021), core dropped to 4.8% YoY vs 5% expected. This is the 12th straight month of YoY declines in headline CPI - equaling the longest streak of declines in history (since 1921)... Source chart: Bloomberg
Market Behaving Like Past Decade's Pattern Has Been Broken
Going back to 1950, this is currently the 9th longest stretch without the S&P 500 making a new all-time high. Source: Willie Delwiche
SP500 top 10 weights - market cap vs. earnings contribution
Source: J.P.Morgan Asset Management
These charts by Bank of America show that every single episode of a local peak in UST 2yr yield was followed by some risk-negative event over the past 40 years.
These #charts by Bank of America show that every single episode of a local peak in UST 2yr yield was followed by some risk-negative event over the past 40 years. Such episodes ranged from mild (Mexican peso crisis in Dec 1995; HY +95bp) to moderate (Asia FX crisis in Oct 1997; HY +350bp ) to severe (GFC; HY all-time wides). The lag between the peak in 2yr yield and subsequent event varies from just a couple of weeks to just over a year, with an average being 7 months. Source: BofA, www.zerohedge.com
