3 reasons why the fed will hike this month (despite the lower us cpi print)...
Source: C. Barraud
On the back of the lower us cpi print, Euro rose sharply against dollar
On the back of the lower us cpi print, Euro rose sharply against dollar, closing at the highest level since March 2022, completely decoupled from its macro data.. Source: Bloomberg, www.zerohedge,com
The swissfranc rises to strongest against the dollar since 2015
The swissfranc rises to strongest against the dollar since 2015 after weaker than expected US inflation data. Source: HolgerZ, Bloomberg
US inflation eased further in June w/core & headline coming in each at 0.2% MoM (v.s 0.3% expected).
Headline CPI slowed to 3% YoY vs 3.1% expected (and lowest since March 2021), core dropped to 4.8% YoY vs 5% expected. This is the 12th straight month of YoY declines in headline CPI - equaling the longest streak of declines in history (since 1921)... Source chart: Bloomberg
Market Behaving Like Past Decade's Pattern Has Been Broken
Going back to 1950, this is currently the 9th longest stretch without the S&P 500 making a new all-time high. Source: Willie Delwiche
SP500 top 10 weights - market cap vs. earnings contribution
Source: J.P.Morgan Asset Management
These charts by Bank of America show that every single episode of a local peak in UST 2yr yield was followed by some risk-negative event over the past 40 years.
These #charts by Bank of America show that every single episode of a local peak in UST 2yr yield was followed by some risk-negative event over the past 40 years. Such episodes ranged from mild (Mexican peso crisis in Dec 1995; HY +95bp) to moderate (Asia FX crisis in Oct 1997; HY +350bp ) to severe (GFC; HY all-time wides). The lag between the peak in 2yr yield and subsequent event varies from just a couple of weeks to just over a year, with an average being 7 months. Source: BofA, www.zerohedge.com
Nasdaq has announced a "special rebalance" for the Nasdaq 100
Nasdaq has announced a "special rebalance" for the Nasdaq 100 to address the overconcentration and weight that the biggest tech companies have on the index. This is the first ever "special rebalance" carried out by the overseer of the index. Source: Bloomberg
