Since 1941 strong first half S&P 500 performance has been associated with further gains in the second half of the year, though with more volatility
Since 1941 strong first half S&P 500 performance has been associated with further gains in the second half of the year, though with more volatility. Past performance does not guarantee future results... Source: Edward Jones
The S&P 500 is currently trading ~12.5% above its 200-day Moving Average
The S&P 500 is currently trading ~12.5% above its 200-day Moving Average. We haven't seen $SPY this far above its 200-day since August of 2021, nearly two years ago. While it looks over-extended, it is not unsustainable. For instance, study the left side of the chart from Nov '20 - Aug '21 Source: Grayson Roze
NASDAQ is trading in the upper part of the steep trend channel
NASDAQ is trading in the upper part of the steep trend channel. Note the shooting star candle today, a classical candle that should be observed closely post strong short term trends. One candle doesn't make a "case", but watch for a possible confirmation session. Source: TME, Refinitiv
The Biden administration announced it would automatically cancel education debt for 804,000 borrowers
The Biden administration announced it would automatically cancel education debt for 804,000 borrowers, for a total of $39 billion in relief. The debt cancellation is a result of the administration’s fixes to repayment plans, which included updated counts of borrowers’ payments. Source: CNBC
$JPM JP Morgan Chase Q2 FY23 numbers
$JPM JP Morgan Chase Q2 FY23 numbers • Net revenue +34% Y/Y to $41.3B ($2.5B beat). • Net Income $14.5B. • EPS: $4.37 ($0.61 beat). • CET1 ratio of 13.8%. $2.7B First Republic bargain purchase gain in Corporate. Source: App Economy Insights
Disinflationary trends in the US
Disinflationary trends in the US 1) CPI Inflation: 3.0%, Lowest since March 2021. 2) PPI Inflation: 0.1%, Lowest since August 2020. 3) Import Prices: -6.1%, Lowest since May 2020. 4) Export Prices: -12%, Lowest on record. Source: Charlie Bilello
The NASDAQ (in yellow) has been massively decoupling from the FED balance sheet (in purple)
Source: The Market Ear, Refinitiv
S&P 500 peak in January 2022 vs. peaks in October 2007 and March 2000...
Source: Charlie Bilello
