The US Labor Department revises 12-month job growth down by a massive 818,000 jobs
In other words, the US economy actually created 818,000 LESS jobs than initially reported. Furthermore, the US economy LOST 192,000 jobs in Q3 2023 and added 344,000 jobs in Q4 2023, according to the BED survey released by BLS. On the other hand, nonfarm payrolls data showed that the US labor market added 663,000 and 577,000 new jobs in Q3 and Q4 2023. This is a jaw dropping 1,088,000 difference in job count over just two quarters. This is the BIGGEST negative revision to payrolls since the global financial crisis. Crucially, it took place in an election year and was meant to pad the numbers, making the economy appear much stronger than it was. Source: The Kobeissi Letter
The Top 10 Countries by Gold Reserves in 2024
The country with the most gold is the United States, holding 8,133 tonnes valued at $628 billion. Half of the country’s reserves are stored at the United States Bullion Depository, commonly known as Fort Knox, a United States Army installation in Kentucky. Germany ranks second with 3,351 tonnes, followed by Italy with 2,452 tonnes. Source: Visual Capitalist
Major retail stores are cutting prices to lure custormers as inflation soars.
Source: Foxbusiness.com
The U.S. economy is now almost entirely driven by the services sector
The services industry now accounts for ~72% of US GDP, up from ~60% in 1990. By comparison, in the 1950s, services reflected just 47% of the US economy. On the other hand, the manufacturing sector's share in US GDP has declined from ~27% in the 1950s to ~10% currently. Meanwhile, the ISM Manufacturing PMI index has shrunk in 20 of the last 21 months, marking 22 months without two consecutive readings of an expansion, the longest streak since the 1990s. Services are keeping the US economy alive. Source: The Kobeissi Letter, BofA
The US Treasury has become a key driver of stocks and other asset markets through its pro-cyclical issuance of debt and the increasing depth and liquidity of repo markets
Writes net treasury issuance leads global equity prices by about 6-9mths due to repo markets. The rise in the volume of collateralized lending, i.e. repo, facilitated by the increase in the supply of USTs is increasingly influential for the behavior of asset prices. Source: HolgerZ, Bloomberg
While Europe is deindustrializing, US industrial renaissance is in full swing
17% annual return anyone? Source: Michel A.Arouet, BofA
BREAKING 🚨 Still a very uncertain race...
Donald Trump is officially leading Kamala Harris in odds to win the 2024 presidential election, according to Polymarket. Kamala Harris has erased a 10 percentage point lead seen just over a week ago. Source: The Kobeissi Letter
BREAKING 🚨 US employment data...
Federal Reserves faces up to 1 million US jobs "vanishing" in potentially the largest downward jobs revision in 15 years, according to Bloomberg Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and Wells Fargo & Co. economists expect the government’s preliminary benchmark revisions on Wednesday to show payrolls growth in the year through March was at least 600,000 weaker than currently estimated — about 50,000 a month. While JPMorgan Chase & Co. forecasters see a decline of about 360,000, Goldman Sachs indicates it could be as large as a million. There are a number of caveats in the preliminary figure, but a downward revision to employment of more than 501,000 would be the largest in 15 years and suggest the labor market has been cooling for longer — and perhaps more so — than originally thought. The final numbers are due early next year. Such figures also have the potential of shaping the tone of Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s speech at week’s end in Jackson Hole, Wyoming. Investors are trying to gain insight as to when and how much the central bank will start lowering interest rates as inflation and the job market cool. Source: Yahoo Finance, Bloomberg
