🔥Gold and silver are moving almost perfectly in line with Japanese government bond yields:
Japan's 10-year government bond yield has risen roughly 1.5 percentage points since the beginning of 2023, reaching 1.98%, the highest level since the 1990s. During this same period, gold and silver prices have skyrocketed by 135% and 175%, respectively. Are precious metals being used as a primary hedge against the rising cost of government debt? Source: Global Markets Investor
🚨 REMINDER: Bank of Japan expected to hike rates 25 bps Friday
Nobody knows when the real consequences will materialize, but after a prolonged period of extremely low rates, this continued shift will likely drain liquidity from markets, potentially causing a ripple effect through margin calls and other forced deleveraging. Rates will probably rise to 0.75%, which is still low by global standards. However, what matters most here is the rate of change, rather than the absolute level of rates. Higher Japanese rates = stronger yen → yen carry trade unwinds → investors sell foreign assets (U.S. Treasuries) → upward pressure on U.S. yields → global liquidity contracts Will it happen? Or is it already priced by the market? Source: Guillaume Tavares, Bitcoin Archive
2026 Warning 🚨: Going back to 1926, the S&P 500 has seen an average drawdown of 18.2% in the 12 months before midterm elections
📉 Going back 60 years, the smallest drawdown has been 7.4% while the largest was 41.8% 🤯 After the midterms, all is well, but before? 🤔👀 Source: Barchart
AI CDS levels update
Coreweave in blue Oracle in red Source: www.zerohedge.com
Mind the gap...
The chart from Epoch.ai GPU clusters reveals a 16x surge in Data center power demand. With 94% of infrastructure not yet built and power constraint ahead, hyperscalers and start-up race to control the future of AI. The US might lose the race to AI not because of the access to talents or capital but because of a lack of power capacity. Source: Markets & Mayhem
Software Stocks are now underperforming Semiconductors by the largest margin in more than 23 years
Source: Barchart
JP Morgan AM chart on electricity inflation.
The AI/Datacenter effect is clearly visible. It matched CPI until the last 5 years and is getting worse. Will consumers start to revolt? Source: JPAM, RBC
🚨 More than 9 million US borrowers miss student loan payments as delinquencies rise.
The Cold Hard Numbers: 9 Million+ US borrowers have officially missed payments. The sudden spike? It’s a year-long backlog of "shadow delinquencies" finally hitting credit reports after the credit-reporting ban expired. The Gamble: Millions strategically skipped payments, betting on forgiveness or prioritizing other spending because there was ZERO penalty. That period of consequence-free non-payment? It's over. 💸 The Economic Fallout (Why You Should Care): This isn't just a personal finance problem; it's an economic headwind that will ripple across sectors: Credit Score Devastation: Delinquencies are officially reporting. We are seeing reports of credit scores dropping by 100-170+ points overnight for once-prime borrowers. The Housing Market Freeze: A crashed credit score means no mortgage, no favorable car loan, and dramatically higher interest rates on everything else. This pulls a massive layer of demand out of the housing and auto markets—right when they need it most. The Consumer Spending Drain: As millions of Americans are forced to scramble, pay down old interest, and fix their credit, that cash is being pulled directly from the "fun" economy: restaurants, travel, and retail. It's a sudden, powerful brake on consumer growth. Source: FT, StockMarket.news
