Emerging Market Local Currency Debt: Sustaining the Rally?
Emerging Market local currency debts have proven to be top performers (+18%) since reaching the peak in the 10-year US Treasury yield (4.25%) in October 2022, during this rate hike cycle. This specific segment of the fixed income market has offered attractive real rates, leading to the strengthening of EM currencies against the US Dollar. Notably, volatility in EM currencies has reached its lowest level since March 2020 and the global pandemic. As emerging market central banks prepare for potential monetary policy "pivot" (starting with Chile, Hungary and Brazil?), the question arises: will this trend continue? Or could we see a break in the rally, despite the favorable gap in nominal policy rates between EM and DM, while the gap in headline inflation reaches its tightest level? Source : Bloomberg
The housing bubble continues to lose more air in Germany
The housing bubble continues to lose more air in Germany. In June, real estate prices slumped sharply, w/existing homes in particular falling by 2.4% MoM. Even new buildings became somewhat cheaper, namely 0.4%. Source: Bloomberg, HolgerZ
The S&P 500's 25% gain since last year's low has been driven by valuation expansion rather than rising earnings
The S&P 500's 25% gain since last year's low has been driven by valuation expansion rather than rising earnings. There is hope that earnings will start recovering in Q3 and through 2024. Source: Edward Jones
Nokia sold 437 million phones in 2007. And Apple sold 1.4 million iPhones. Apple will sell more than 220 million iPhones this year
Nokia sold 437 million phones in 2007. And Apple sold 1.4 million iPhones. Apple will sell more than 220 million iPhones this year. And Nokia no longer makes its own phones. Source: John Erlichman
Bullish sentiment on equities is getting even more bullish
Bullish sentiment on equities is getting even more bullish. Source: TME, Goldman Sachs
Since 1941 strong first half S&P 500 performance has been associated with further gains in the second half of the year, though with more volatility
Since 1941 strong first half S&P 500 performance has been associated with further gains in the second half of the year, though with more volatility. Past performance does not guarantee future results... Source: Edward Jones
The S&P 500 is currently trading ~12.5% above its 200-day Moving Average
The S&P 500 is currently trading ~12.5% above its 200-day Moving Average. We haven't seen $SPY this far above its 200-day since August of 2021, nearly two years ago. While it looks over-extended, it is not unsustainable. For instance, study the left side of the chart from Nov '20 - Aug '21 Source: Grayson Roze
NASDAQ is trading in the upper part of the steep trend channel
NASDAQ is trading in the upper part of the steep trend channel. Note the shooting star candle today, a classical candle that should be observed closely post strong short term trends. One candle doesn't make a "case", but watch for a possible confirmation session. Source: TME, Refinitiv
