Syz the moment

Source: Bloomberg

Source: Bloomberg

Source: Statista

Source: BofA

Emerging Market local currency debts have proven to be top performers (+18%) since reaching the peak in the 10-year US Treasury yield (4.25%) in October 2022, during this rate hike cycle. This specific segment of the fixed income market has offered attractive real rates, leading to the strengthening of EM currencies against the US Dollar. Notably, volatility in EM currencies has reached its lowest level since March 2020 and the global pandemic. As emerging market central banks prepare for potential monetary policy "pivot" (starting with Chile, Hungary and Brazil?), the question arises: will this trend continue? Or could we see a break in the rally, despite the favorable gap in nominal policy rates between EM and DM, while the gap in headline inflation reaches its tightest level? Source : Bloomberg

The housing bubble continues to lose more air in Germany. In June, real estate prices slumped sharply, w/existing homes in particular falling by 2.4% MoM. Even new buildings became somewhat cheaper, namely 0.4%. Source: Bloomberg, HolgerZ

The S&P 500's 25% gain since last year's low has been driven by valuation expansion rather than rising earnings. There is hope that earnings will start recovering in Q3 and through 2024. Source: Edward Jones

Nokia sold 437 million phones in 2007. And Apple sold 1.4 million iPhones. Apple will sell more than 220 million iPhones this year. And Nokia no longer makes its own phones. Source: John Erlichman