As your time horizon extends, the probability of negative returns declines
Source: BofA
The Itraxx Xover index below 400bps for the first time since April 2022!
The spread of the Markit iTraxx Xover index, which is a good indicator of investor sentiment on European high yield, fell below 400 basis points for the first time since April 2022. The index is tightening by 25 basis points today following Ms. Lagarde's reassuring comment on the growth outlook. Source: Bloomberg
Best January since 1975 for US Investment Grade bonds
U.S. investment grade (IG) bonds recorded their best January performance (+4%) since 1975! After having its worst year in 2022 (-15.8%), the IG bond market is recovering thanks to the slowing of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy tightening and a better than expected economic outlook. Source: Bloomberg
Hedge Funds Boost #Treasury Shorts to Record on Doubts Over Rally
Source: Bloomberg
China Celebrated Lunar New Year Like Covid No Longer Exists
Source: Bloomberg
Bank of Japan (BoJ) owns ~50% of Japan's national debt
Japan's national debt stands at 1,280 trillion Yen or roughly $9.2 trillion. Bank of Japan (BoJ) owns ~50% of Japan's national debt: 564 trillion yen. If they continue with same pace of bond buying, they will own all the outstanding bonds in 33 weeks Source; WallStreetSilver, SagarSinghSetia
S&P 500 Q4 GAAP earnings were down 20% year-over-year
S&P 500 Q4 GAAP earnings were down 20% year-over-year, the 3rd consecutive quarter of negative YoY growth and the largest decline since Q2 2020 (note: combination of actual/estimates w/ 37% of companies reported thus far). Source: Charlie Bilello
Tesla has become one of hottest stock-option trades on Wall Street
Tesla has become one of hottest stock-option trades on Wall St attracting equal numbers of enthusiastic supporters & outspoken critics. Both sides have turned to derivatives: Bulls betting on extreme upside scenarios, bears bet share price will plunge. Source: HolgerZ, Cboe
