A new cycle high for U.S. terminal rate expectation
The market has pushed its expectations for the U.S. terminal rate higher (and longer). Indeed, it now appears that it will end slightly above 5% and in July 2023 (one month later than previously expected). The resilience of the U.S. economy (driven by a strong labor market) continues to drive terminal rate expectations higher and for a longer period of time. Source: Bloomberg
US existing home sales have been falling faster today than they did during the Great Financial Crisis
Source: Morgan Stanley
MSCI China relative multiples are the highest since 2011
Either earnings improve for Chinese companies or the MSCI China Index now looks pretty expensive vs rest of world. Source: Citigroup, Sofia Horta e Costa
China Gold Reserves keep growing
China lifts Gold reserves by extending buying to 3rd month. China has joined other nations in building up reserves of bullion. Source: HolgerZ, Bloomberg
The 1-Year US Treasury yield trades at its highest level since August 2007
The 1-Year US Treasury yield has moved up to 4.85%, its highest level since August 2007. A year ago it was at 0.88% and in mid-2021 it hit an all-time low of 0.04%. Sourc: Charlie Bilello
The rise of Tesla
Sales, 10 Yrs Ago: GM: $152 billion; Ford: $134 billion; Tesla: $0.4 billion. Sales Today: GM: $157 billion; Ford: $158 billion; Tesla: $81 billion. Net Income, 10 Yrs Ago: GM: $6.2 billion; Ford: $5.6 billion; Tesla: -$0.4 billion. Net Income Today: GM: $10 billion; Ford -$2 billion; Tesla: $13 billion. Source: Charlie Bilello
FED swaps price in 50bp of rate cuts for second half of 2023
Source: Bloomberg, Alessio Urban
German housing market remains in a freeze
Mortgage lending was down 43% YoY in December, representing 4th negative record in a row since data records began in 2003. Compared with peak of €32.3bn from March 2022, the decline is almost 60%. Source: HolgerZ, Barkow consulting
