Agree
Source: CNBC
Did you know that the US is the only G10 economy where the latest core inflation print surprised to the upside?
Source: Goldman Sachs, TME
U.S. President Joe Biden reportedly intervened to prevent Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu from authorizing an immediate retaliatory strike against Iran
Following Iran's launch of approximately 300 attack drones and missiles at Israel. The New York Times reveals that despite support from some members of Israel's war cabinet for a response attack, the limited damage caused by Iran and Netanyahu's conversation with Biden resulted in the strike being called off. Source: i24 News
Big Mac inflation vs. CPI... which one is right?
While many investors are more confused than ever looking at "CPI", whatever that is, the real inflation gauge is giving off a serious warning. Source: J-C Parets
Who would’ve thought a 2-century-old Japanese porcelain maker would benefit from AI?
Source: FT
The "East-West divide" in one cartoon.
China is dumping their US Treasury debt and buying hard assets. Many other countries around the world are doing the same. Source: WallStreetSilver
The correlation between equity market volatility and inflation expectations is at the highest level we've seen in decades.
Although the chart below doesn't extend as far back, a similar phenomenon occurred in 1973-1974 as markets faced difficulties whenever inflation reaccelerated. This is especially pertinent now, with energy prices, agricultural commodities, precious metals, copper, global freight costs, and other inflation indicators showing significant resurgence. Source: Tavi Costa, Crescat Capital, Bloomberg
The attack on Israel by Iran was feared by markets already last week and partly explains the pullback on Friday.
When the attack happened last night, bitcoin and cryptos (which are the only assets traded over the week-end) went down substantially (-10% in 30 minutes for the bitcoin). But it seems that the fact that 1) Israel and US were able to intercept the vast majority of drones and missiles; 2) Biden administration comment that they will not support any Israel counter-attack seem to calm down investors for the time being. Indeed, President Biden told Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu during a call on Saturday that the U.S. won't support any Israeli counterattack against Iran, a senior White House official told Axios. Bottom-line: Further escalation does not seem to be the core scenario at this stage. This morning, Bitcoin is back to $64k/$65k and Israeli stocks open slightly higher after Iran drone attack foiled. TA 35 index is up 0.5% after opening but trade remains nervous. However, stocks in the Arab world are down. Saudi Arabia’s main bourse opened 1.2% lower. Source: Bloomberg, HolgerZ
