According to new US government data, annualized interest payments on US debt just crossed $900 BILLION for the first time in history
Government spending jumped 15% in June, the same month we had the debt ceiling “crisis.” Ironically, in the same month we had a debt ceiling crisis, US Federal spending hit a near record and annualized interest expense crossed $900 billion. Source: The Kobeissi Letter
A parliamentary investigation into the collapse of Credit Suisse will keep its files closed for 50 years
A parliamentary investigation into the collapse of Credit Suisse will keep its files closed for 50 years, according to a parliamentary committee document, a level of secrecy that has triggered concern among Swiss historians. The document means the investigating commission would hand over its files to the Swiss Federal Archives after a longer gap than the usual 30 years to ensure high levels of confidentiality apply to the investigation, which has generated huge public interest. The investigation will focus on the activities of the Swiss government, financial regulator and central bank in the run up to the emergency takeover of Credit Suisse by UBS in March. The investigation is only the fifth of its kind in the country's modern history and the committee of lawmakers conducting it has sweeping powers to call on the Swiss cabinet, finance ministry and other state bodies. "After the completion of the investigation, the files shall be handed over to the Federal Archives and shall be subject to an extended protection period of 50 years," the committee said in a strategy paper outlining its communication policy. Source: Reuters
China reports Q2 GDP miss, fueling calls for more stimulus
China said Monday that 2nd quarter gross domestic product grew by 6.3% from a year ago, missing expectations (+7.3%). This marked a 0.8% pace of growth from the first quarter, slower than the 2.2% quarter-on-quarter pace recorded in the first three months of the year. The unemployment rate among young people ages 16 to 24 was 21.3% in June, a new record. Retail sales for June rose by 3.1%, a touch below the 3.2% expected. Industrial production for June rose by 4.4% from a year ago, better than the 2.7% forecast. So far, Beijing has shown reluctance to embark on greater stimulus, especially as local government debt has soared. A Politburo meeting expected later this month could provide more details on economic policy. Source: Bloomberg, CNBC
Dollar’s worst slump since November has some strategists saying a turning point is finally at hand for the greenback
Standard Bank expects ‘multi-year downtrend.’ Dollar bears can also lean on valuation measures. Dollar is overvalued in terms of purchasing power (Big Mac Index) against all major currencies except Swiss franc, the Swedish/Norwegian krona, and the Canadian dollar. Source: HolgerZ, Bloomberg
The S&P 500 is up 17.5% year-to-date. In the last 20 years only 2019 had a better start. $SPX
Source: Charlie Bilello
The pund is the best performing currency (against dollar) YTD ahead of the CHF
The pound is the best performing currency (against dollar) YTD ahead of the swissie. The japanese yen is the only G10 currency to have lost value vs. dollar since the start of the year. Source: Bloomberg
There is striking divergence between social media mood (apocalyptic) and actual fund flows (and stock prices)
Source: www.zerohedge.com, JP
Wall Street is giving up on us recessoon risk as highlighted by a Wall Street Journal article
Jim Bianco Research shows consensus expectations for the coming quarters are pointing towards a very small contraction. The blue line is the June update of a survey conducted by Bloomberg of around 70 economists showing the median forecast for the next six quarters.
