Syz the moment

Middle East and Saudi Arabia strategic importance for the global economy and financial markets is growing at a fast pace. BlackRock said Monday that Amin Nasser, the CEO of Saudi Aramco, the world’s largest oil company, is joining the asset manager’s board of directors. The world’s largest asset manager said the move reflects the firm’s emphasis on the Middle East as part of its long-term strategy. BlackRock had more than $8 trillion in client assets under management as of 2022. (NB: Not sure that the #esg activists will like it...) Source: CNBC

Prepare for pain in the #us #commercial #realestate market warns Morgan Stanley which believes that prices could drop by as much as 27.4% from peak to trough by the end of 2024. And McKinsey believes prices could slide by as much as 42% in a worst case scenario. Source: barchart

While the deeply inverted yield curve has stoked anxiety among investors about the prospect of a recession, Goldman Sachs has a different message: stop worrying about it. Indeed, the bank's Chief Economist Jan Hatzius just cut his assessment of the probability of a recession to 20% from 25%, following a lower-than-expected inflation report last week.

EURUSD has broken through strong resistance that has capped advances all year at 1.1080/90. Last week the push higher saw a close at 1.1245, indicating new bulls entering the market and potential for the currency to enter a new range.
Looking ahead, we should see a support around 1.1090/1.1100. On the upside, we might go back to today's high of 1.1276 and potentially to 1.1590, the 76% Fibonacci line from 2021.

Source: Santander & Bloomberg

On July 24, the weight of the largest 7 stocks in the index will be reduced from 56% to 44%. Apple and Microsoft will remain the largest constituents but their index weights will be reduced to 12% and 10%, respectively. Alphabet, Amazon and Nvidia come next. Broadcom’s index weight will increase the most (by 60 basis points to 3%). It is estimated that roughly $260 billion in mutual funds and ETFs AUM are benchmarked to the Nasdaq 100 $NDX while hedge funds have an estimated $20 billion of net short exposure. Source: David Kostin thru Oktay Kavrak, CFA

In June 2023 alone, the deficit was $228 billion, up from just $88 billion in June 2022. On average, the US deficit has risen by ~$155 billon per MONTH in FY2023. At the current rate, total US debt would rise by $18.5 TRILLION in 10 years. Source: The Kobeissi Letter

Call Open Interest in the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF $TLT is more than triple the OI for Puts signaling that options traders are betting that interest rates are primed to drop. Source: Barchart

The avg expectation of 4.9% for the long term until 2026 is still high, Ifo said, though marginally below the 5% estimate in Q1. Lowest level of inflation expectation was recorded in Europe, yet economists do not expect the rate to return to ECB's 2% target by 2026. Source: HolgerZ, Bloomberg