JUST IN: 20,000 blocks remain until Bitcoin halving
Source: Watcher Guru
As highlighted by The Kobeissi Letter, options markets are suggesting that Bitcoin will hit $50,000 by January
This also happens to be the same month that Bitcoin ETF approvals are expected. Open interest for Bitcoin $50,000 strike calls is massive, as displayed below. A move to $50,000 would put Bitcoin up more than 200% from its low. Options are suggesting the run is only just beginning. Can Bitcoin continue to thrive after ETF approvals? Source: The Kobeissi Letter
“Mr. 4MM” buys Bitcoin for approx. $4 million USD, several times a day, regardless of the price
He already bought 2x $4mm today. Source: CC15Capital
Is bitcoin the most resilient asset class of all time?
Despite an unprecedented number of setbacks (Collapse of FTX, a $2 trillion bear market, over 500 lawsuits and regulation cases, multiple crypto lender bankruptcies, Binance fined a record $4.3 billion by US regulators, increased calls for regulation around the globe, etc.), Bitcoin prices hit $43,000 for the first time since April 2022, up 180% since November 2022. Bitcoin is now up ~45% in 6 weeks since speculation of Bitcoin ETF approvals began. Over the last year Bitcoin has added a massive $470 BILLION of market cap. The entire crypto market has added $750 billion of market cap since November 2022. Source: The Kobeissi Letter
Last year, BlackRock launched a spot bitcoin private trust for institutional clients in the United States - see below. This PRIVATE trust was launched in 2022 with coinbase as custodian
The move comes at a time when the global cryptocurrency industry has been caught in the crosshairs of the U.S. securities regulator on alleged violations of securities laws. Could it be that BlackRock has been buying Bitcoin throughout the whole bear market using this PRIVATE trust?
Bitcoin wealth concentration issue: as shown below, 2.08% of existing Bitcoin holders (adresses) owns almost 93% of coins currently in circulation
Is the analysis oversimplified? what will happen if several ETF spot bitcoin ar approved and large asset managers become forced buyers? As show below, a small number of adresses owns the vast majority of BTC currently in circulation. However, some analysts believe that this table is misleading. For instance, glassnode highlighted that the table below does not factor in custodians, lost coins, and wrapped BTC. Adjusting these numbers might get you below 50% of concentration for the top 2% adresses, which is still high but much better than the current global wealth distribution. Still, this raises the question about how big will the supply/demand imbalance be the day several Bictoin spot ETF are approved. Indeed, asset managers will become forced buyers of an asset which is indeed quiet scarce. It is however possible that some "wwhales" might take advantage of rising demand and price increase to offload some of the BTC they have been hodling. Time will tell.
Interesting market action... Bitcoin and Gold just moved in sharply opposite directions after weeks of similar price action. Beginning late Sunday night, both assets jumped sharply
Since then, Bitcoin is up 6.5% while gold prices have posted a massive $100 reversal. Some shift from gold to digital gold? Or just a random short-term divergence? Source: The Kobeissi Letter
A wake-up call to start the week with Gold trading above $2,100 and digital gold aka bitcoin trading above $41,000
I do see 2 messages here: 1) Short-term: Mr Market believes Mr Powell is bluffing, i.e rate cuts are coming; 2) Long-term: dollar debasement is inevitable. Investors and central banks are looking for reserve status
