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The Treasury Yield Curve has been steepening (i.e. uninverting) for 5 straight weeks, the longest streak in more than 25 years
Source: DB, Barchart
This is by far the longest bond bear market in history, at 38 months and counting...
Source: Charlie Bilello
Vast majority on Wall Street think next 100bps move in 10Y yields is LOWER (and vast majority think the next 10% S&P 500 move will be LOWER)
The Deutsche Bank October 2023 global financial market survey, conducted between the 3rd and 6th of October, had 410 responses from around the world. - 75% think the next 100bps move in US 10yr yields is lower (average yield 4.75% during the survey). A big turnaround from June’s results where a small majority expected 4.5% before 2.5% when we were halfway between the two. Well done to that small majority as it got there in just 3 months. - 72% think the next 10% move in the S&P 500 will be lower. Slightly less than in June. In March 76% thought the next 10% move would be up so a different mood to earlier this year. Source: DB
One bond market is defying global selloff with mega returns
As bond markets everywhere get battered by a cocktail of higher interest rates, deficit angst and hawkish central bankers, one class of debt instrument is handing creditors double-digit returns: catastrophe bonds.
Because of the way the bonds are structured, their coupons keep going up as Treasury yields rise, and investors get a sizable risk premium on their capital, as long as catastrophe doesn’t hit.
Source: SwissRe, Bloomberg
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