Welcome to Zombie Land
"There are some serious problems in small-caps, especially in the US. Good luck paying interest without profits. Great chart via Soc Gen showing the distribution of stock forward P/E valuations in the MSCI Europe small cap and Russell 2000 index. Source: SG, Themarketear, Lance Roberts
Bitcoin has outperformed equities, gold and USD year-to-date It has increased by more than 100% this year, despite:
- War Conflict - Elevated inflation - Rising oil prices - High-interest rates This is what happens when institutions like Blackrock jump on board Institutional adoption is going to be a major theme for this asset class. Source: Game of Trades
OpenAI valuation in perspective - chart by Chartr
Talk is meant to be cheap, but OpenAI, the force behind the viral hit ChatGPT, has turned it into an absolute goldmine, with the company currently in discussions to sell shares at a valuation of $86 billion. That's a remarkable three-fold increase from just 6 months ago, with the WSJ reporting an initial range of $80-90bn, before Bloomberg narrowed the figure to around $86bn, citing sources familiar with the matter. That would place OpenAI among the most valuable tech startups in the world, only behind giants like ByteDance (TikTok owner) and SpaceX. For context, it’s also roughly equivalent to the value of 12 of the biggest consumer brands in America combined — a theoretical corporate frankenstein including SNAP, The New York Times, Etsy, Domino’s and 8 others.
$MSFT FY Q1 2024 in perspective
Revenue +13% *Prod. & Business +13% *Intelligent Cloud +19% *Pers. Computing +3% *Azure +29% *LinkedIn +8% *Xbox C&S +13% EBIT +25% *marg 48% (43) EPS +27% Source: Quartr
Cloud growth is all what matters to the market these days
Unlike Alphabet/Google, Microsoft shares jumped as much as 6% in extended trading Tuesday after the software maker issued fiscal first-quarter results and quarterly revenue guidance that beat Wall Street estimates. Microsoft’s Intelligent Cloud segment produced $24.26 billion in revenue, up 19% and above the $23.49 billion consensus among analysts surveyed by StreetAccount. The unit comprises the Azure public cloud, SQL Server, Windows Server, Visual Studio, Nuance, GitHub and enterprise services. The firm also reported a surge in profit due to a slower pace of operating expense growth. In a nutshell: $MSFT Microsoft Q1 FY24 (ending in Sept): • Revenue +13% Y/Y to $56.5B ($1.95B beat). • Gross margin 71% (+2pp Y/Y) • Operating margin 48% (+5pp Y/Y). • EPS $2.99 ($0.34 beat). ☁️ Azure +28% fx neutral. Reaccelerating from +27% in Q4 FY23 Source: App Economy Insights
Alphabet reported 11% revenue growth in the third quarter, as a rebound in advertising pushed expansion into double digits for the first time in over a year
The shares dropped almost 7% in extended trading as the cloud business missed analysts’ estimates. In a nutshell: $GOOG Alphabet Q3 FY23: • Revenue +11% Y/Y to $76.7B ($1.0B beat) • Operating margin 28% (+3pp Y/Y) • EPS $1.55 ($0.10 beat) Google Cloud: • Revenue +22% Y/Y to $8.4B. • Operating margin 3% (+13pp Y/Y). Source: App Economy Insights
Equities tend to sell off with bonds when interest rates rise beyond 5%
Source: GS, TME (European equities in this case)
CTAs are running equity shorts, global as well as US
Source: TME, GS
