The probability of a July 26 rate of 25 basis points to 5.25% to 5.50% barely moved
Despite the better-than-expected CPI report today, the probability of a July 26 rate of 25 basis points to 5.25% to 5.50% barely moved. The market is strongly expecting a hike in two weeks. Source: Jim Bianco
US inflation eased further in June w/core & headline coming in each at 0.2% MoM (v.s 0.3% expected).
Headline CPI slowed to 3% YoY vs 3.1% expected (and lowest since March 2021), core dropped to 4.8% YoY vs 5% expected. This is the 12th straight month of YoY declines in headline CPI - equaling the longest streak of declines in history (since 1921)... Source chart: Bloomberg
New cobalt, copper, lithium and nickel mines needed
Per a McKinsey report, the current 500 cobalt, copper, lithium and nickel mines operating today will need to almost double to 900 in order to meet battery demand. Almost 80% increase in mines needed.
Israel pauses after 10 rate hikes but signals it may not be done
Israel’s central bank left interest rates
unchanged for the first time in over a year, halting an
unprecedented cycle of monetary tightening but signaling it’s
still on alert for the threat of faster inflation.
Source: Bloomberg
China's Inflation Rate Eases to Zero
Deflation in China? China's Consumer Price Index (CPI) year-on-year growth rate in June dropped to 0% (prev. 0.2%). Producer Price Index (PPI) year-on-year growth rate dropped to -5.4% (prev. -4.6%). Source: Bloomberg
Swiss Inflation returned below SNB’s 2% Ceiling in June
The figures offer limited reassurance to officials who have already signaled further
tightening is likely.
CPI YoY rose 1.7%, down from 2.2% the previous month, as energy costs fell. Underlying inflation, which strips out such volatile elements, also slowed to 1.8%. Source: BBG, Swiss statistics agency
Long term inflation expectations higher in Europe than in US!
For the first time in more than 10 years, markets expect long-term inflation to be higher in the Eurozone than in the U.S. A direct result of the fact that the FED seems to be fighting inflation more aggressively than the ECB? Source: Bloomberg
