For the 1st time since Feb’21, rate hikes are no longer exceeding rate cuts in Emerging markets.
Source: BofA, TME
The probability of a July 26 rate of 25 basis points to 5.25% to 5.50% barely moved
Despite the better-than-expected CPI report today, the probability of a July 26 rate of 25 basis points to 5.25% to 5.50% barely moved. The market is strongly expecting a hike in two weeks. Source: Jim Bianco
Israel pauses after 10 rate hikes but signals it may not be done
Israel’s central bank left interest rates
unchanged for the first time in over a year, halting an
unprecedented cycle of monetary tightening but signaling it’s
still on alert for the threat of faster inflation.
Source: Bloomberg
10-year German yield : a key technical breakout triggered?
The German 10-year yield has experienced a significant surge of almost 30 basis points since the start of July, marking a notable technical breakout. This breach of the 2.5% resistance level has the potential to alter short-term market sentiment and pave the way for higher rates. The upward momentum has been fueled by several factors, including the synchronized hawkishness observed in developed countries such as the US, Eurozone, and the UK last week. Additionally, hawkish FOMC minutes (release yesterday) and resilient hard data, including strong employment figures in the US and robust industrial production in Europe, have contributed to the yield's upward trajectory. It is worth noting the emergence of a catching-up effect in soft data, as indicated by the latest report on the U.S. ISM composite index. Tomorrow's release of the June NFP report could further ignite the discussion. Will we test the year's highs (2.75%) in this early summer period?
German and US yield curves are deeply diving into low levels of inversion
US Curves flattened further, with the 2s10s curve hitting -109bp, in-line with the lowest level in 42 years.
Bund yields rose, while the 2s10s curve dropped to -83bp, the most inverted level in over 30 years.
Source: Bloomberg, Haver Analytics, Morgan Stanley Whitephone
Shifting Dynamics in 3-Month US Futures: A Hawkish Turn
The recent shift in the 3-month US futures market has grabbed investors' attention. FED Governor Powell's increasingly hawkish tone has sparked a repricing frenzy, altering market expectations for rate cuts. The latest data shows a significant turnaround, with futures no longer projecting any cuts in 2023 and only one in the first half of 2024. This remarkable repricing indicates a growing sentiment of an extended period of higher interest rates. The resurgence of the 3-month SOFR Future June 24 contract to pre-SVB crisis levels further underscores the market's confidence in this new direction. Source: Bloomberg
UK bond market is sending a signal!
The recent developments in the UK bond market have caught the attention of investors. In June, the UK yield curve (2s10s) experienced an unprecedented decline, marking one of the steepest drops in decades, and it is now approaching -100bps. This significant shift reflects the market's conviction that the Bank of England (BoE) will take decisive measures to combat inflation. However, it also raises concerns about the potential impact on the UK economy and its medium-term growth prospects. Should the BoE keep pushing the limits (rate hikes) until something breaks?
Switzerland’s new inflation forecast supports another SNB hike
The government expects inflation to be above the central bank’s target this year which reinforces a likely interest-rate hike next week. The SECO said consumer prices will rise 2.3% this year. That down from 2022’s 2.8%, and also slightly lower than a March prediction of 2.4%.
Source: Bloomberg, SECO
