Those that claim the US dollar dominance is at risk or in decline, due to the Iran war, are completely wrong. The US dollar is becoming even more dominant in international transiations.
The US dollar's percentage of international transactions rose to a record 51.1% in March. The world is still betting on the USA as the world reserve currency. China is not an option due to capital restrictions. Europe is in economy stagnation and decline, so the Euro currency is not really an option. The "news" media is trying to sell a narrative, but the data is clear. The US dollar still dominates trade and it is growing, not declining. Source: Wall Street Mav Bloomberg
Almost half of the semiconductor index names are showing Bubble Risk Indicator levels above 0.8, and two thirds above 0.7, according to Bank of America.
Source: Markets & Mayhem
I know that comparing market cap with country GDP does not make too much economic sense.
Source: shirish @shiri_shh on X
Chegg $CHGG is now down 99% from its peak because AI has killed its business entirely.
Chegg was a $14.7 billion edtech company that charged students $20 a month for homework answers from a database of 79 million solutions built over a decade. Then ChatGPT launched in November 2022. Five months later Chegg's CEO admitted it was destroying their business. The stock dropped 48% in a single day. Revenue dropped 49% by Q4 2025. Subscribers collapsed from 5 million to under 3 million. The company fired 67% of its staff in two rounds last year and shut down all US and Canada offices. AI does the same thing instantly for free and explains the concept behind it. It went From $14.7 billion marketcap to $114 million in 39 months. The first company to be officially killed by AI. Source: Bull Theory
SOX vs. Silver: mind the gap!
AI demand for silver is still small, likely only a low single-digit % of total demand. But it’s the fastest-growing piece, with AI servers using significantly more silver than traditional hardware. And importantly, cost isn’t a constraint. Silver is a tiny part of system spend, making AI a strong marginal buyer. As shown on the hashtag#chart below, the SOX vs silver gap is huge. Is chasing silver upside convexity instead of SOX at 60x P/E a more attractive bet? Source: TME
LPs are rotating.
Infrastructure and liquidity solutions (secondaries, opportunistic) are in. Software, buyouts and direct lending are out. Source: Illiquid Insights
The current bull market is 3.5 years old and up 99.2%. As we've noted many times, once bull markets get past their third birthday they rarely end anytime soon.
Source: Over the past past 50 years, 5 made it past their 3rd birthday and those lasted eight years on average".
The World soared to its highest level of uncertainty in history last year, surpassing Covid, the Global Financial Crisis, and the Dot Com Bubble 👻🤯👀
Source: Barchart
