Despite the Russell 2000 remaining in a bear market, down 20% from its peak in 2021, the S&P 500 reached a new milestone by trading above 5,000 points intraday for the first time ever yesterday.
source: bloomberg
SPX 4,999.89 ......So Close ....
source : bloomberg
Is the market pricing in a Trump victory?
Based on Goldman's Republican winners vs losers basket performance, it appears stocks are moving in sync with Trump's odds. Source: www.zerohedge.com
In 2004, Priceline $BKNG acquired Booking.com for $100 million.
Over the last 12 months, http://Booking.com generated ~$20 billion in revenue! Source: Finchat
Equity futures spiked while bond yields dropped yesterday after the close after US Treasury unexpectedly slashed borrowing estimates:
- For Q1, US Treasury now expects to borrow "only" $760 billion in debt, which is $55 billion lower than what it expected in October 2023, and is about $30BN below wall street estimates. The difference the Treasury explained is "largely due to projections of higher net fiscal flows and a higher beginning of quarter cash balance." In other words, Treasury expects higher taxes to more than make up the $55BN difference from the previous estimate. - For Q2, the Treasury now expects to borrow only $202 billion in debt. While there was no previous Treasury forecast for this period, Wall Street expected a number somewhere in the $500BN vicinity, so clearly this is far lower than preciously expected. Source: Bloomberg, Chris Middleton, Lawrence McDonald, www.zerohedge.com
The Fed did almost no QT in the last 3 weeks
As highlighted by Tavi Costa, this was the smallest change in their balance sheet since the regional bank crisis in March 2023. Source: Bloomberg, Crescat Capital
Smart money is extremely bearish
Source: Game of Trades
Average 3-month ATM implied volatility (max/min range since 2008)
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