Range or breakdown?
Markets are at a decision point. The big range is still holding, but short-term trends, bond stress, and positioning shifts are building pressure. These setups don’t linger, one side eventually wins. Source: TME
Pinpointing the next “Taco” moment has become Wall Street’s newest fixation.
This week, Deutsche Bank’s head of cross-asset strategy, Maximilian Uleer, introduced a “pressure index” designed to act as a proxy for potential shifts in rhetoric or strategy from the US administration. The index incorporates several indicators, including the one-month change in Trump’s approval ratings, one-year inflation expectations, movements in the S&P 500, and US Treasury yields. Source: FT
Ares Restricts Withdrawals Amid Private Credit Surge
Ares Management capped withdrawals at 5% from its $10.7B private credit fund after $1.2B in redemption requests, fulfilling only ~$524M. The fund still grew due to $708M in new commitments, but liquidity stress is rising across the $2T private credit market, with $13B requested this quarter and $4.6B unmet. Concerns over loan quality, slower PE exits, and aging LBOs are driving investor caution. Despite this, Ares reports a healthy portfolio and ~$5B liquidity, highlighting opportunity for long-term holders. Source: Financial Times
This is notable news from Bloomberg given Apollo's standing in private credit:
"Apollo Global Management Inc. is curbing redemptions from one of its largest non-traded private credit funds for retail investors, becoming the latest alternative asset manager to grapple with a surge in such requests. The $25 billion business development company, Apollo Debt Solutions, capped withdrawals at 5% of outstanding shares Monday after clients sought to redeem 11.2%." Source: Mo El Erian on X, Bloomberg
The S&P 500 $SPX is back inside the "eternal" range as the max frustration market continues.
Amazingly enough, the 6600/7000 (futures) range continues to hold. Note we are still below the 200 day MA. Source: TME
Gold has been slightly more oversold on a few occasions over the past decade.
Daily RSI at 24 is extreme, but as we all know, oversold tends to stay oversold for longer than most think possible. Source: TME
Today is the six-year anniversary of the COVID Crash low.
The S&P would need to fall 66% to get back to that level. Source: Bespoke
Trump’s “ceasefire” is only a partial pause
Trump announced a five-day pause on strikes against Iranian energy infrastructure, following a 48-hour threat that Iran ignored. Meanwhile, missile attacks continue, Hormuz remains closed, and 4,500 Marines are still deploying. The pause applies only to energy strikes; all other military actions continue. Media frames it as diplomacy, Iran sees a win, and the bond market reacts with volatile yields. The real indicator of impact will be market behavior, not political statements. Source: The Kobeissi Letter, Whale Guru on X
