Don't be too excited about Fed rate cuts.
Examining Fed rate cycles since 1970s has revealed that investors have more to fear from 1st cut in a cycle than the pause. On average, sp500 is up +5% over 100 days between last Fed tightening and 1st cut. The trough in broader market is -23% over 200 days after 1st cut in a series, SRP has calculated. Source: HolgerZ
Tech Stocks are trading at all-time highs relative to the SP500, even surpassing the peak of the Dot Com bubble...
Source: BofA, Bar chart
If one ignores dividends gold has been able to keep up with equities since Nixon ended things in 1971.
Source: Michel A.Arouet, Bloomberg
Here are the Equally-weighted Nasdaq100 and S&P500.
If these two are above their former cycle highs, it's hard to be too bearish on this market. Source: J-C Parets
At 5,215, the S&P 500 is already 7.3% above the average 2024 year-end price target from Wall Street strategists (4,861). $SPX
Source: Charlie Bilello
A little History in a Chart.
Green=Bull Markets 🐂 Red=Bear Markets 🐻 source : bespoke
Here's the S&P 500 stocks that bought back the most shares in Q4 2023
1 Apple $AAPL: $22.7B 2 Google $GOOGL: $16.2B 3 Raytheon $RTX: $10.3B 4 General Motors $GM: $10B 5 Broadcom $AVGO: $8.3B 6 Facebook $META: $8.2B 7 Exxon Mobil $XOM: $4.7B 8 Microsoft $MSFT: $4b 9 Visa $V: $3.8B 10 Comcast $CMCSA $3.5B source : StockMKTNewz
S&P 500 Tech Profit Margins versus the rest.
Source: Eugene Ng, Goldman Sachs
