The SP500 has now lost $3.5 trillion in value since the Fed removed a recession from their forecast
The Fed marked the exact high in July 2023 with their "no recession" call. Since then, the S&P 500 is down 9% and just hit its lowest level since May 31st. We are also 1% away from entering correction territory just as earnings season begins. Source: The Kobeissi Letter
MARKET BREADTH NEGATIVE ALERT >>>
SP500 Market Breadth drops to lowest level of the year as only 35.38% of Index Stocks are trading above their 200 Day Moving Averages Source: Barchart
This is the first time since 2000 that Treasury Bills are yielding higher than the S&P 500 earnings yield
Even during the 2008 Financial Crisis, cash never yielded higher than S&P 500 earnings. And the gap between the SP500 earnings yield and cash is widening. Competition from cash and bond yields versus stocks keeps rising. For a USD-reference account investor, here's the median Return by Asset Class: 1. High Yield Savings Accounts: 5.5% 2. 6-Month Treasury Bill Yield: 5.0% 3. Investment Property Cap Rate: 4.5% 4. S&P 500 Earnings Yield: 4.2% Bottomm-line: Cash and Treasury Bills are now paying a HIGHER yield than real estate and the S&P 500. In other words, risky assets are paying less than risk-free assets, i.e taking a risk is compensated LESS than just holding cash. Source: The Kobeissi Letter
Wondering why high interest rates hasn't hurt sp500 performance so far?
Just have a look at the chart below courtesy of Linas Beliūnas. The S&P 500 heavy weights are full of cash and have been benefiting from the higher yield paid on short-term deposits. E,g Apple is making $1 billion on their cash holdings doing absolutely nothing...
Nobody can predict at the moment how the Middle East situation will unfold, but if history is a guide market impacts of geopolitical scares are usually short lived
Will it be different this time? Source: Michel A.Arouet
The bull-market is one-year old and the leadership has been unusual
• Since 1980, every single end to a bear market and start of a new bull has been accompanied by a broad rally in stocks, with the Equal Weight Index and small-caps stocks outperforming the S&P 500. • This time is different: the S&P 500 is heavily influenced by the 10 largest companies, which have enjoyed outsized returns. The so-called "magnificent seven" (Amazon, Apple, Alphabet, Meta, Microsoft, NVIDIA and Tesla) are up 77% over the past 12 months. But the S&P 500 Equal Weight Index, which assigns the same weight to all the stocks that are included, is up a more modest 11% for the same timeframe. Small-cap stocks are up 5%. Source: Edward Jones
$100k invested in the S&P 500 ETF 30 years ago would be worth over $1.7 million today
Was the road to 17x growth a straight line? Far from it... Source: Charlie Bilello
The KBW Bank Index is underperforming the S&P 500 by 37% year-to-date, on pace for the widest annual gap on record
(note: data via Dow Jones going back to 1993). Source: Charlie Bilello
