BREAKING: Trump has a whopping 27.8% lead over Harris in Nate Silver’s updated electoral college prediction poll.
Trump - 63.8% Harris - 36% NB: The graph shows the chance of winning, not the percentage of the vote !!! Source: Leading Report, Nate Silver
US home price relative to median income is now at the highest level ever seen
Source: Game of Trades
Will Europe ever outperform again?
From Robeco thru Mike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT, MBA.
Full-time employment DROPPED by 1 million workers in August on a year-over year basis, marking the 7th consecutive monthly decline.
Since the June 2023 peak, full-time job count in the US has fallen by a whopping 1.5 million. Meanwhile, part-time employment rose by 1 million year-over-year in August. Additionally, the number of permanent job losers jumped by 324,000 year-over-year, to 2.5 million, the highest since November 2021. This was the 16th straight month of part-time job gains, the longest streak since the 2008 Financial Crisis. The US job market is cooling down. Source: FRED, The Kobeissi Letter
Donald Trump Trump threatens to impose a 100% tariff on countries that conduct business in currency other than the USDollar, adding a new pillar to his tariff platform.
Trump, who has long embraced protectionist trade policies, said the dollar has been “under major siege” for 8yrs. China, India, Brazil, Russia, and South Africa discussed de-dollarization at a summit last year. By contrast, Trump has said he wants the dollar to remain the world’s reserve currency, a pledge he renewed at Saturday’s rally. While Dollar dominance has lessened in recent decades, the US currency still accounted for 59% of official FX reserves in Q1 2024, w/Euro 2nd at almost 20%. Source: Bloomberg, HolgerZ
There are now 510k more Job Openings than Unemployment Persons in the US.
That's the smallest differential since April 2021, down from a peak of over 6 million in March 2022. The labor market is rapidly cooling... Source: Charlie Bilello, Y charts
Germany has significantly lagged behind the US in economic growth over the past 30yrs
Since 1980, the US econ has expanded tenfold, while Germany's has only grown fivefold. This disparity is partly due to faster population growth in the US. However, the underperformance since the 1990s is no accident. The US has capitalized on digitalization far more effectively, driving economic gains, whereas Germany has been slower to embrace technological transformation. A clear example of this is Volkswagen, which highlights Germany's cautious approach to modernization. Source: HolgerZ, Bloomberg
Apollo: "This is a soft landing"
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