A tectonic shift in Predict Presidential elections odds
Source: Predict It
A very important chart which goes AGAINST hard landing scenario
"The source of the rise in the us unemployment rate is not job cuts but a rise in labor supply because of rising immigration. That is the reason why the Sahm rule doesn’t work. The Sahm rule was designed for a decline in labor demand, not a rise in immigration." - Torsten Slok (Apollo) Source: Mike Z. on X
Coincidence or not?
Source: Bastien Chenivesse, Bloomberg
Hedge Funds bought the panic dip yesterday
US stocks saw their largest 1-day net buying in 5 months, according to GS Prime. 8 of 11 sectors were net bought, led by Tech and Defensives. $SPY $QQQ $IWM Source: David Marlin
2 weeks ago, US High Yield credit spreads were nearly at their tightest levels since 2007 (302 bps).
Spreads have since increased 91 bps to their widest levels since Nov 2023 (393 bps). The last 3 recessions all saw spreads move over 1,000 bps at some point. We're not close to pricing in that scenario today. Source: Charlie Bilello
Putting yesterday's VIX intra-day high at 65 into historical perspective...
Source: Bloomberg, RBC
Buying the dip often pays off
Since 1980, an investor buying the sp500 index 5% below its recent high would have generated a median return of 6% over the subsequent 3 months, enjoying a positive return in 84% of episodes. Source: Goldman Sachs, Mike Z.
BREAKING: Small Caps $IWM post 3%+ declines for 3 consecutive trading days for the first time since October 1987
Source: Barchart
