Easing US inflation in June👏
✅Headline PCE prices: 0.1% m/m ✅Core PCE prices: +0.2% m/m 🎯Moving toward Fed's 2% target: ⤵️Headline inflation -0.1pt to 2.5% yoy, IN-LINE with expectations. This is the lowest level since February '21 and down from 7.2% two years ago... ↔️Core inflation is flat at 2.6% yoy, at the lowest level since March '21. This is slightly above expectations (2.5%), which is not such a big surprise as PCE data from yesterday's GDP report revealed a similar picture. Source: Gregory Daco, BEA, EY-Parthenon
🚨 Breaking! US GDP growth surpasses expectations, hitting 2.8% (est. 2.0%, prev. 1.4%).
GDP Annualized QoQ Contribution: Consumption 1.57 pp (prev. 0.98 pp) Government Spending 0.53 pp (prev. 0.31 pp) Investment 1.46 pp (prev. 0.77 pp) Exports 0.22 pp (prev. 0.17 pp) Imports -0.93 pp (prev. -0.82 pp) Source: MacroMicro
CTAs will dump stocks over the next week in EVERY SINGLE SCENARIO warns Goldman Sachs.
If the market trades lower, CTAs are projected to sell more than $7 billion worth of equities.
Trump odds of winning the Presidential election are BELOW where they were after the debate…
Source: Predictit
The steepening trade continues with US 2s/30s yield spread jumping to 12bps, the highest since 2022.
Source: Bloomberg, HolgerZ
India’s dependence on Chinese imports keeps growing:
• In 2023-24 financial year China edged past the US to reclaim its position as India’s top trading partner • India’s imports from China rose by 56% since 2020, fuelling a 75% rise in country's trade deficit with China Source: Agathe Demarais, The Economist
Semi conductors Companies Ranked by Market Cap - @EricFlaningam on X:
1)The scale of the industry is incredible. Many public companies larger than $10B aren’t listed here. 2) $NVDA's performance over the last two years has to be one of the best tech stories ever. Incredible how they built their accelerated computing ecosystem for over a decade before the current infrastructure boom.
US 10y-3m yield spread has been negative for more than 440 days.
But no recession so far... Source: Kevin Gordon
