THE US REAL ESTATE MARKET IS MAKING HISTORY...
As highlighted by The Kobeissi Letter -> For the first time since 2005, new home prices are set to drop below existing home prices. In other words, new will be selling for LESS than old. The median new home price is down to ~$410,000 while the median existing home prices is nearing $400,000. Why is this happening? ~90% of mortgages outstanding currently have an interest rate that is below 5%. Many mortgage rates are BELOW the current inflation rate. A mortgage issued in 2020 or 2021 is effectively an asset now. Truly historic. Source: The Kobeissi Letter
Amid a collapse in 'hard' economic data, 'soft' surveys from S&P Global was expected to see both Services and Manufacturing PMIs slide further in preliminary November data
However, the data was more mixed with US Manufacturing falling more than expected to 49.4 - back into contraction - (vs 49.9 exp) from 50.0 in October. However, US Services unexpectedly rose from 50.6 to 50.8 (exp 50.3). Source: Bloomberg, www.zerohedge.com
US budget deficits in the years to come
Source: Win Smart, CBO , Bloomberg
What Will Americans Buy on Black Friday?
TODAY IS BLACK FRIDAY... Black Friday falls on the fourth Friday of November each year, with Cyber Monday following just three days later. The two shopping days are some of the busiest of the year in the United States, with an estimated $19.6 billion raked in over the 2021 Thanksgiving weekend in e-commerce revenue alone. U.S. shoppers keen to make the most of discounted prices were asked in a Statista survey which items they were planning on buying. As the following chart shows, clothing, electronics and shoes are among the most popular choices this year. In terms of other shopping behaviors, the same survey found that where 41 percent of U.S. respondents said they would be shopping via online stores, 28 percent were undecided and 25 percent planned on heading to brick-and-mortar shops. Source: Statista
ALERT: US imports from Mexico have just surpassed those from China This has happened for the first time since in 2 decades
Source: Games of Trades
US Bonds have a negative return over the last 7 years. Does that mean the 60/40 portfolio is dead?
Source: Charlie Bilello
The US population has increased 87% since 1960 but fewer homes are being built today than back then
Source: Charlie Bilello
Hedge Funds betting on a decline in US and European stockmarkets have suffered an estimated $43bn of losses in a sharp rally over recent days.
Short sellers, many of whom had built up bets against companies exposed to higher borrowing costs over the past year or so, have been caught out by a “painful” rebound in “low quality” stocks this month, said Barclays’ head of European equity strategy Emmanuel Cau. That has come as the market has grown more confident that the US Federal Reserve’s cycle of rate rises is finally over. Funds suffered $43.2bn of losses on short bets in the US and Europe from Tuesday to Friday inclusive last week, according to calculations by data group S3 Partners, which do not take account of gains that funds may have made in other stocks they own. Source: FT
