With the US 10-year yield close to 5%, long duration bonds start to look attractive
There is one issue though: sentiment on long-dated bonds look too optimistic E.g 1/ not a single sell-side analyst does have a 10-year target yield above 5% for the next 6 months; 2/ Long-dated bonds funds are enjoying record inflows; 3/ Magazine cover pages look upbeat on bonds (source: J-C Parets). The consensus is not always wrong but so much optimism is usually not a good sign from a contrarian perspective.
As highlighted by Tavi Costa, despite the recent push toward new highs, gold remains severely under-allocated
In fact, 71% of US advisors have little to no exposure to the metal. Similar to how Central banks continue to aggressively accumulate the metal, conventional investment portfolios have yet to take steps to find true diversifiers. Sources: Tavi Costa, BobEUnlimited
U.S. Bank losses on held-to-maturity assets have soared to an ALL-TIME HIGH of $400 Billion
Source: Barchart
US Q3 GDP numbers summarized in one cartoon
Source: Elizabeth Oliveira Fonseca
This is WORSE than the 2008 Financial Crisis. Credit card defaults are rising at levels NEVER seen in 3 decades
Source: Game of Trades
Adding to that Great Rotation theme is this chart
US households account for 73% of Treasury bond buying in 2022-2023 (so far) A lot of pain being experienced for those not willing to hold to maturity amid this bond blood bath... Source: Markets & Mayhem, Goldman Sachs
P/E Forward for the largest US companies - Magnificent 7
$TSLA Tesla 62 $AMZN Amazon 58 $NVDA NVIDIA 40 $MSFT Microsoft 30. $AAPL Apple 28 $GOOGL Alphabet 24 $META Meta 23 Source: Vlad Bastion
For now, the monetary policy transmission route of tightening US financial conditions are NOT reaching the economy...
Indeed, an avalanche of US macro data on Thursday presented a positive blend of updates across growth (better), inflation (lower), and labor markets (looser/worse). - Economic Growth: Real GDP rose 4.9% in 3Q (consensus 4.5%) driven by strong demand across consumer and federal/state government, and inventories. However, a major contribution from inventories could in turn weigh significantly on growth in 4Q - Manufacturing: Orders for Durable and core capital goods also grew by more than expected... thanks to a massive surge in non-defense aircraft orders (so don't expect it to last). - Housing: Pending home sales rose 1.1% month over month in September, above expectations for a decline... but brace for October to be a bloodbath as mortgage rates re-accelerated. - Inflation: Core PCE prices component of the GDP report rose less than expected. - Labor: Initial and continuing jobless claims both increased by more than expected -- a positive for markets which are focused on labor market re-balancing (i.e., could benefit from less wage inflation).
