US Treasury Real Yield Curve Returns to Positive Territory!
The US Treasury real yield curve (2s10s) has shifted back into positive territory for the first time since 2022. This comes on the heels of a pronounced steepening trend that has unfolded since the beginning of the year. While this development is certainly noteworthy, it's essential to note that the current real yield curve level still trails its historical average, hovering around 0.6%. The recent uptick in interest rates, combined with the steepening of the real yield curve, raises questions about the potential implications for risky assets. Indeed, we're already witnessing some early signals in the High Yield market. The CDX HY index, which monitors single CDS of US HY companies, has shown notable widening from 310bps to 370bps over the past few weeks, indicating heightened risk perceptions among investors. With this in mind, how might further increases in interest rates, combined with a steeper real yield curve, impact risky assets moving forward? Source: Bloomberg
Don’t time the market
Thru Compounding Quality
Eisenhower Matrix : Busy-ness doesn't equal productivity.
Credits : Ben Meer, Alvin Foo
Bitcoin $BTC priced in grams of gold... (log chart)
Note that 1) $1,000 seems to be a key resistance; 2) Bitcoin hasn't made a new all-time high yet... Source: www.priceingold.com
Consensus earnings estimates are projecting +3% YoY EPS Growth for the $SPX in Q1.
Last quarter, Wall Street was also modelling +3% EPS Growth and the realized number came in at +8%. Source: David Marlin, Goldman Sachs
The Mag7's weighting in the SP500 just hit another new high
Source: Cheddar Flow
Getting to 2% YoY CPI by the end of 2024 means we need to average monthly CPI prints of 0.1% or less from here.
Source: Bespoke
The Paxos Gold token traded as high as $3,000/oz Saturday night...
"Each Pax Gold $PAXG token is backed by one fine troy ounce of gold, stored in LBMA vaults in London."
