Warren Buffett now owns a staggering 5.6% of the entire U.S. Treasury Bill Market 🚨🚨🚨
Source: Barchart
🚀 Morgan Stanley: “The AI Memory Super Cycle Has Arrived — and It’s Unlike Anything We’ve Seen Before.”
Morgan Stanley says the new AI-driven memory super cycle will far surpass any past cycle — in scale, speed, and earnings power. 💡 Here’s what’s different this time: Led by AI data centers and cloud giants, not consumer devices. Price sensitivity is gone. Memory is now a strategic must-have, not a cost item. HBM (High Bandwidth Memory) demand is exploding, squeezing traditional DRAM supply. 📈 The numbers are jaw-dropping: Q4 server DRAM contract prices up ~70% (vs. 30% expected). DDR5 spot prices +336% since September. NAND up 20–30% — and still rising amid severe shortages. Enterprise SSD demand expected to surge 50%+ YoY by 2026. 🏭 Suppliers in control: SK hynix and Samsung now hold unprecedented pricing power. Morgan Stanley remains Overweight on both, expecting record profits and new share price highs. 🔥 The key insight: “This isn’t a typical memory cycle. It’s a structural shift — driven by AI inference workloads and hyperscaler demand. Earnings, not valuations, will define the peak.” 💰 Even after massive price hikes, memory is still below its last cycle peak ($1/Gb vs. $1.25 in 2018). Morgan Stanley sees further upside as AI capex accelerates. 📊 Bottom line: This AI memory super cycle is longer, stronger, and more profitable than any before. Morgan Stanley expects 2026–27 earnings 30–50% above market consensus for SK hynix and Samsung. “We’re in uncharted territory — this is not just a cycle. It’s a paradigm shift.”
Buffett's few final thoughts in his final letter-
Source: Jeff Park @dgt10011
This is Historic: Retail investors own the risk.
Households are holding a record 52% in equities, up from 25% after 2008. That’s above every cycle before it. Source: Goldman Sachs, zerohedge
Buybacks are back...
"Goldman estimates over $6B worth of stock buyback vwap demand for each November trading day" Source: zerohedge
US corporate earnings growth is booming:
S&P 500 quarterly earnings growth is up to +18% YoY in Q3 2025, the highest since Q3 2021. Excluding the post-pandemic recovery, this marks the strongest growth since 2018. This comes as 6 of the 11 S&P 500 sectors reported positive average EPS growth in Q3, a material improvement from just 2 sectors in Q2. Additionally, median profit growth in the Russell 3000 index hit +11% YoY, the highest since Q3 2021 and up from +6% in Q2. Overall, the frequency of earnings beats is now among the highest on record. Earnings momentum is incredibly strong. Source: FT, Global Markets Investor
Data centre operator CoreWeave’s stock has fallen more than 20 per cent over the past two weeks, alongside the drop in bigger names.
On Tuesday, the company’s shares were down a further 16 per cent after it lowered its forecast for annual revenue as a result of expected data centre delays. The cost to protect against a default on CoreWeave’s debt has jumped as the equity price has fallen, with the group’s five-year credit default swaps trading at 505 basis points, from below 350bp at the start of October, according to LSEG data. Source: FT
Germany creates a substantial infrastructure package and then allocate 50% of it to other purposes.
At least, that's what a study finds. Source: FT
