Bitcoin’s inflation rate will become lower than gold’s post-halving
Source: Bitcoin Magazine
Could an ECB rate cut change reverse this trend?
It might not be enough to offset some of teh structural issues the old continent is facing (overregulation, demographics, lack of tech innovation and energy dependence among others). Source: Bloomberg, Michel A.Arouet
Central bank purchases, mainly by China have been quoted as the main reason for recent gold rally.
Gold makes out only 4.3% of china’s reserves, there is still large room for further purchases. Source: Michel A.Arouet
The 10y annualized return of US Treasuries has dropped to a 65-year low of 0.6%.
The 2020s era of war, protectionism, fiscal excess, scarce energy/housing/labor killed the 4 decades-long bond bull market. Source: BofA; HolgerZ
China copper demand surge 📈
What is China going to do with all this copper? Source: CEO Technician
Equity market positioning is VERY extended (which is bad from a contrarian perspective).
As shown in the chart below, Asset Managers have built the largest equity futures position in history 🚨🚨🚨 Source: Barchart, Goldman Sachs, CFTC
BREAKING >>> ECB rates unchanged as expected but ECB gives quite explicit indication of coming rate cut in June - unless they are surprised. No rate cut size given.
Note also a Critical Change In The ECB's Language (UBS): "The ECB noted that wage pressures are moderating and those wage gains there are, are tending to be absorbed by companies in their profits. That is something ECB President Lagarde said a month ago was a prerequisite – indeed it was a worrisome signal as far as equity was concerned, specifically requiring lower profit margins. But contrast today's wording with last month's: that inflation remained high because in part of high wages. So, having set up a margin squeeze on wage absorption as a critical requirement, Lagarde should draw attention to that in the press conference". The first indication out of today’s ECB governing body meeting is consistent with President Lagarde’s previous statment that the Eurozone’s central bank is not “Fed dependent.” Source: Piet Haines Christiansen
Goldman is embracing the rotational trade as well:
"Sell your Tech Stocks and invest elsewhere" says Goldman Sachs
