Syz the moment

Amazon is in talks to invest $10B+ in OpenAI, pushing its valuation north of $500B. But this isn’t just about capital. It’s about control of the AI stack. 🔹 OpenAI would use Amazon Trainium AI chips 🔹 Rent massive AWS data-center capacity 🔹 Deepen infrastructure dependence beyond Microsoft This comes right after OpenAI restructured its relationship with Microsoft, unlocking deals with rival cloud providers. 💡 What’s happening behind the scenes: OpenAI already committed $38B over 7 years to Amazon servers Has $1.5T (!) in long-term infrastructure deals with Nvidia, Oracle, AMD & Broadcom Nvidia alone plans up to $100B in a multi-year partnership 🤔 Investors are uneasy. Many of these deals are circular — suppliers invest in OpenAI, OpenAI buys their hardware, and sometimes takes equity in return. Meanwhile, rivals aren’t standing still: Anthropic has raised ~$26B from Amazon, Google, Microsoft & Nvidia Amazon alone has put $8B into Anthropic since 2023 ⚠️ Key limitation: Amazon still won’t get rights to OpenAI’s most advanced models — Microsoft keeps exclusivity until the early 2030s. 🛒 Bonus twist: Amazon and OpenAI are also discussing e-commerce integrations, as OpenAI expands beyond chat into platforms like Etsy, Shopify & Instacart. 📌 Big takeaway: The AI race is no longer about models. It’s about chips, clouds, capital, and distribution — and Big Tech is locking it all down fast.

UK inflation fell sharply to 3.2% in November, well below expectations. 📉 Forecast: 3.5% 📉 October: 3.6% 📉 Actual: 3.2% Even more important: Core inflation also cooled to 3.2% Unemployment just rose to 5.1% This combo changes the game. 💷 What it means: The Bank of England is now widely expected to cut rates by 25 bps to 3.75% at its meeting this Thursday. 👀 Inside the decision room: Likely a tight 5–4 vote Governor Andrew Bailey expected to be the deciding swing vote 📌 Big takeaway: Inflation is easing. The labor market is softening. The UK may be on the brink of its first rate cut cycle, and markets are watching closely. Source: CNBC

Source: Barchart

The "End of the Combustion Engine" was supposed to be 2035. But the reality of the market just forced a massive pivot. Here is what’s happening and why it matters for the global economy: 📉 The Pivot The EU has officially backed away from its 100% emissions reduction goal for 2035. Instead of a total ban on gasoline and diesel, they are targeting a 90% reduction. 🚗 What this means for Carmakers ICE is back on the menu: New gasoline, diesel, and plug-in hybrids can still be sold past 2035. Flexibility over Ideology: Companies can use low-carbon fuels or "green steel" to offset emissions rather than being forced into an all-electric lineup. Survival Mode: With Ford recently taking a $19.5 billion charge on its EV business, the industry is screaming: “We can't make the math work yet.” 🌍 The Bigger Picture Europe is aligning more with the U.S. approach. Between trade tensions with China and the economic reality of a struggling manufacturing sector, the EU is choosing industrial stability over rigid green targets. The Lesson: You can mandate a transition, but you can’t mandate consumer demand or profitability. Economic reality eventually catches up to policy. Is this a necessary lifeline for the European auto industry, or a dangerous step backward for the planet? Source: Bloomberg, Financial Post

This crossover has only happened a couple of times in modern history, most notably in the late 1960s and again in the late 1990s. What's particularly striking is that both of those periods preceded major bear markets that lasted for years. What this means practically is that households have become increasingly concentrated in equity investments, making them more vulnerable to stock market volatility. When your wealth is primarily in stocks and the market drops, you lose wealth quickly. Real estate tends to be more stable and less prone to sudden crashes, though it can still decline. The US Government can not afford a bear market... Should we prepare ourselves for a "Trump put" in 2026? Source: Wells Fargo, StockMarket.news

Back in August, I highlighted that Lindt had corrected more than 16% from the June highs and was retesting the 11’090–11’750 support zone, a key area aligned with the February breakout level. - Fast forward to today, and the stock is once again back on this exact same support. - This repeated test reinforces the importance of the zone: - It remains a major reference level in the broader uptrend Buyers have previously stepped in here, confirming it as a structural support The question now is whether this area can attract demand once again or if the market needs further consolidation before resuming higher. From a technical standpoint, as long as this support holds, the medium- to long-term trend remains intact. A sustained rebound from this level would once again confirm the strength of the underlying structure. Source: Bloomberg

*US payrolls grew by 64K in November, but shrunk by 105K in October. *Average hourly earnings +0.1% MoM vs Est. 0.3% *US NOV. UNEMPLOYMENT RATE 4.6%; EST. 4.5% Source: @SteveRattner

Source: Bloomberg