** Regional Banking Crisis Alert! **
**Huntington Bank Spooks Investors Yesterday, Shares Plunged 6%** - **New Guidance:** Net interest income to fall 1% to 4% this year - **Previous Range:** -2% to +2% - **Impact:** Largest drop since March 2023 Source: The Coastal Journal
Foreign investors are piling into US markets:
Foreign holdings of US securities have hit ~$27 trillion in 2023, near the all-time highs seen in 2021. Since 2009, foreign investments in US markets have skyrocketed by 180%. This comes after the S&P 500 has gained 573% during this time materially outperforming other markets such as the EU, Canada, and Japan. Meanwhile, foreign investors’ share of the $78 trillion US equity market has risen to ~17%, an all time record. Source: Bloomberg, The Kobeissi Letter
Small cap stocks are now down on the year while Large caps are still up 12.5%. $SPY $IWM
Source: Charlie Bilello
Below is an extract of a great chart pack by Topdown Charts / Callum Thomas
https://lnkd.in/eCV4GauM Over the long-run equal-weight has beat cap-weight, but there have been significant punctuations and cycles around that trend that echo important sector themes.
In the first three weeks of May, OpenAI’s ChatGPT averaged 77 million daily visits, putting it on track to reach 2.3 billion visits last month
A new monthly record after setting its previous record of 1.8 billion visits a year ago. Source: Beth Kindig $MSFT $NVDA $GOOG $AMZN
Reckless Trading
Source: WSJ
Commodities' seasonality
Source: Jay Kaeppel, SentimenTrader
France's 10-Year Borrowing Costs Surge Against European Benchmarks!
The gap between the 10-year French government bond yield and the 10-year EUR Swap rate, a key benchmark for borrowing costs in Europe, has significantly widened since the recent European elections in France The trend was already "en marche" since S&P recently downgraded France’s credit rating from AA to AA-, following a similar downgrade by Fitch last year. Moody’s has also indicated that the current situation might lead to another downgrade. While other countries like Ireland and Spain have seen their financial health improve, France seems to be facing more challenges. Political uncertainty and reliance on international investors might cause money to leave France, pushing borrowing costs even higher. Higher interest rates on French bonds mean that investors want bigger returns because they see more risk in lending money to France. Japanese investors, who own a lot of French bonds, might start investing more in their own country due to rising interest rates there, reducing demand for French bonds. Additionally, some hedge funds are betting against European government bonds, showing a lack of confidence in the stability of European economies, including France. This trend underscores the growing concerns about France’s economic and political stability in the broader European context. Source: Bloomberg
