France's 10y risk spread over German bunds drops to 74bps on speculation Marine Le Pen’s far-right party will struggle to win an outright majority in French elections.
Source: HolgerZ, Bloomberg
S&P 500 buybacks have been much more powerfuil than passive flows
Source: GS
The US Treasury market remains volatile
The 10-year note yield is now up over 20 basis points in since Friday's intraday low. That's 20 basis points in a matter of hours without any material news? Or is it a Trump effect? UST over-supply? Whatever the reason, for the first time in almost 5 weeks, the 10-year note yield is set to break above 4.50%... Source: The Kobeissi letter
S&P EPS positive revisions have been a tailwind for the market.
However, note that EPS revisions outside of the top 20 have been NEGATIVE YTD and during the last 12 months. Source: JP Morgan
The 13 largest luxury companies by market cap.
Four fun facts: → $LVMH's market cap is more than double the size of the bottom ten companies combined. → $RMS is by far the largest single-brand company on the list, at 3.3x the size of $RACE. → Despite owning 10+ brands including iconic maisons such as Gucci, Saint Laurent, Brioni, and Bottega Veneta, $KER's revenue is "only" ~€20B, compared to Hermès' >€13B. → Tiffany & Co. was acquired by LVMH during the pandemic at a $16B valuation, which would place them at #8 on this list. Source: Quartr
US Poll: Majority believe Biden's cognitive health doesn't qualify him for presidency
A new CBS News/You Gov poll reveals that 72% of Americans doubt Biden's "mental and cognitive health" meets the standards required for the presidency. Of those surveyed, 46% of Democratic voters believe Biden should consider withdrawing from the race due to health concerns. The poll also asked respondents about former President Donald Trump's fitness for office, with 50% expressing confidence in his mental and cognitive abilities, while 49% disagreed. Source: https://www.albawaba.com/
At 5,460, the S&P 500 ended the first half above every 2024 year-end price target from Wall Street strategists
We're 12% higher than average target price of 4,861. $SPX Source: Charlie Bilello
The Le Pen vote
Parliament elections 1st Round- over time: 1988: 9% 1993: 12% 1997: 15% 2002: 11% 2007: 4% 2012: 13% 2017: 13% 2022: 18% 2024: 34% National populism is only getting stronger. Source: Matt Goodwin
